WSH vs CIN prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 5.4 - WSH 4.4. CIN is favored with a 61.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
CIN
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
WSH
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINWSH
-1.5
Run Line (CIN)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.7% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
CIN
357
Projected
CIN 5.4 — WSH 4.4
Actual
CIN 4 — WSH 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Miles Mikolas R
WSH
FF26%93 mph21% whiff
SI23%92 mph11% whiff
SL18%87 mph21% whiff
Brady Singer R
CIN
SI48%91 mph11% whiff
SL34%82 mph28% whiff
ST11%81 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
78°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.003 Total: 0.999
thin air, 5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.32ERA
4.98FIP
7.82K/9
4.31BB/9
1.41WHIP
CIN
4.17ERA
4.94FIP
9.30K/9
6.16BB/9
1.51WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-43.7% EV
-161
F5_ML AWAY
-18.7% EV
+108
ML AWAY
-11.7% EV
+122
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-8.4% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
+6.0% EV
-135
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+3.2% EV
+134
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.3 runs
32.0% win
CIN F5
3.3 runs
54.4% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
53.1%
YRFI
46.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.00
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.3
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
84%
No HR
4%
CJ Abrams WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.347 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Brady Singer | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.307 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Brady Singer | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
JJ Bleday CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.471 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Miles Mikolas | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Miles Mikolas
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Brady Singer
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Clayton Beeter RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Baum DHDAY-TO-DAY
Ken Waldichuk RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CIN8 injured
Eugenio Suarez 3B10-DAY-IL
Rhett Lowder SPOUT
Caleb Ferguson RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Connor Burns CDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Staumont RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 61.3%
+3.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+3.2 pts
Total
9.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →