WSH vs CIN prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 4.9 - WSH 4.5. CIN is favored with a 55.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
CIN
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
WSH
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINWSH
-1.5
Run Line (CIN)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
WSH L5CIN W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
346
CIN
357
Projected
CIN 4.9 — WSH 4.5
Actual
CIN 7 — WSH 8
Pick Results
Joey Wiemer OVER 0.5 Hitsbatter_hitsWIN+1.17u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jake Irvin R
WSH
FF28%92 mph21% whiff
SI24%92 mph6% whiff
CU22%77 mph42% whiff
Nick Lodolo L
CIN
CU28%82 mph40% whiff
FF28%94 mph20% whiff
SI22%94 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
66°F18 mph wind
HR: 0.980 Total: 0.987
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.27ERA
4.81FIP
7.99K/9
4.21BB/9
1.41WHIP
CIN
4.43ERA
5.11FIP
9.46K/9
6.19BB/9
1.53WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-35.8% EV
-141
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-17.1% EV
-122
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-12.3% EV
+116
ML HOME
-9.8% EV
-172
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
-6.7% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
-5.8% EV
-167
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.3 runs
35.5% win
CIN F5
2.9 runs
50.0% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
53.9%
YRFI
46.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
7%
Joey Wiemer WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.412 | Barrel: 11.5% | vs Nick Lodolo | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.232 | Barrel: 16.9% | vs Nick Lodolo | Park: 1.08x
Curtis Mead WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs Nick Lodolo | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jake Irvin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Nick Lodolo
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Clayton Beeter RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Baum DHDAY-TO-DAY
Ken Waldichuk RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CIN8 injured
Brady Singer SPDAY-TO-DAY
Rhett Lowder SP15-DAY-IL
Eugenio Suarez 3B10-DAY-IL
Caleb Ferguson RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Connor Burns CDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1RED ZONE45.6% WR (n=148)
Nick Lodolo (7.29 ERA, 23.7% K, B command) vs Jake Irvin (5.64 ERA, 23.3% K) creates a pitcher disadvantage for WSH that market is over-pricing at 63.3% home ML; model sees 42.9% away ML value at +4.6% edge, supported by NRFI edge (+2.8%) and reasonable win probability.
Key Factors
- Lodolo 7.29 ERA (23.7% K, B command) vs Irvin 5.64 ERA (23.3% K) = pitcher DISADVANTAGE for WSH despite away
- Model 42.9% away vs market 41.0% = +4.6% edge, YELLOW zone support
- NRFI edge +2.8% (52.4% prob): early scoring suppression likely, helps small-sample WSH bats
- Park factor 1.08 (runs inflated) and 8 mph wind IN should support over; total model 9.36 vs market 9.0
Risk Factors
- Away ML in RED zone (45.6% WR n=148) — historically away dogs underperform
- High park factor (1.08): could inflate scoring more than model projects, helping home scoring first
- Lodolo's 7.29 ERA could just be a small sample; command grade is B+ suggesting he's better than ERA
PITCHER DISADVANTAGEAWAY VALUENRFI EDGEMODEST EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 55.8%
-12.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-12.3 pts
Total
9.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →