WSH vs CIN prediction for May 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 4.6 - WSH 3.6. CIN is favored with a 61.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
CIN
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
WSH
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINWSH
-1.5
Run Line (CIN)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.9% (2,063 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
CIN
357
Projected
CIN 4.6 — WSH 3.6
Actual
CIN 15 — WSH 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Foster Griffin L
WSH
FC29%88 mph17% whiff
FF17%92 mph17% whiff
ST14%80 mph28% whiff
Chase Burns R
CIN
FF56%98 mph18% whiff
SL38%91 mph46% whiff
CH6%90 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
60°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.016 Total: 1.008
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.11ERA
4.75FIP
7.86K/9
4.16BB/9
1.38WHIP
CIN
4.38ERA
5.08FIP
9.33K/9
6.02BB/9
1.50WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-45.3% EV
-161
F5_ML AWAY
-9.3% EV
+134
ML AWAY
-8.6% EV
+132
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-5.5% EV
-122
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-3.8% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
-2.0% EV
-167
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
1.9 runs
32.1% win
CIN F5
2.7 runs
51.7% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
56.2%
YRFI
43.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
9%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.324 | Barrel: 16.4% | vs Chase Burns | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
CJ Abrams WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.333 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Chase Burns | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Spencer Steer CIN30.0%
ISO: 0.344 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Foster Griffin | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Foster Griffin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Chase Burns
0.0 K projected
CIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Clayton Beeter RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Baum DHDAY-TO-DAY
Ken Waldichuk RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CIN8 injured
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Rhett Lowder SP15-DAY-IL
Eugenio Suarez 3B10-DAY-IL
Caleb Ferguson RP15-DAY-IL
Connor Burns CDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Staumont RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALGREEN ZONE54.4% WR (n=146)
Game concluded 15-1 (CIN landslide) — massive run explosion (+8 vs model 8.19) suggests model underestimated CIN offensive capability or WSH lineup collapse. Resolved game, confidence=0.
Key Factors
- Near-identical pitcher ERAs: Burns 2.28 vs Griffin 2.29 — no meaningful mismatch; both Grade B starters with similar profiles.
- Park factor 1.08 + hitter-friendly CIN ballpark should boost runs slightly, model correctly estimated 8.19 (0.69 runs above market 7.5).
- Model had no meaningful ML edge (0.6% CIN): market pricing at 61% CIN was appropriate.
- Actual score 15-1 WSH collapse suggests either lineup-specific disaster or relief pitcher meltdown late, not predictable from pregame data.
- CIN home advantage modest given even pitcher matchup — ~2-3% edge typically, model at 61.2% aligns.
Risk Factors
- Model significantly underprojected total (8.19 vs 16, -7.81 run gap) — rare and suggests either data quality or late-game dynamics beyond pregame capability.
- WSH's 1 run is extreme outlier, implies lineup issues not visible in opening lineups (injuries, lineup changes, shutdown performance).
RESOLVED GAMEPITCHER BALANCEDMODEL UNDERPROJECTED TOTALOUTLIER OUTCOME
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CIN 61.2%
+1.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+1.2 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →