WSH vs CLE prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 5.3 - WSH 3.9. CLE is favored with a 64.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
CLE
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
WSH
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEWSH
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.2% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
CLE
357
Projected
CLE 5.3 — WSH 3.9
Actual
CLE 2 — WSH 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
PJ Poulin L
WSH
ST35%79 mph25% whiff
FF29%90 mph11% whiff
SI17%89 mph0% whiff
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
FF27%94 mph11% whiff
FC26%86 mph37% whiff
CH19%81 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
63°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.016 Total: 1.008
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.46ERA
4.54FIP
8.22K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
CLE
3.68ERA
3.86FIP
10.76K/9
4.08BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-46.1% EV
-149
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-18.6% EV
-104
F5_ML AWAY
-12.4% EV
+134
ML AWAY
-9.2% EV
+150
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+5.2% EV
+125
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-1.8% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.0 runs
31.3% win
CLE F5
3.1 runs
54.2% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
53.1%
YRFI
46.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
13%
CJ Abrams WSH28.1%
ISO: 0.302 | Barrel: 14.2% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Angel Martínez CLE22.8%
ISO: 0.127 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs PJ Poulin | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Chase DeLauter CLE21.8%
ISO: 0.154 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs PJ Poulin | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
PJ Poulin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Tanner Bibee
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Tyler Stuart SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Henry RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE3 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Erik Sabrowski RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Model projects CLE home 63.7% (market 64.1%, -0.7% edge, ZERO value). Starting pitchers comparable quality: Tanner Bibee (B- pitcher, 0.519 grade, 7.8 K/9) vs PJ Poulin (C pitcher, 0.306 grade, 6.8 K/9) — Bibee has modest edge but insufficient to overcome market's accurate home-field pricing. Weather cool (63.3F) reduces run environment. Bullpen edge (CLE 3.68 ERA vs WSH 4.46 ERA) is built into market. No edge exists; pass.
Key Factors
- Zero edge: Model 63.7% vs market 64.1% = -0.4% edge. Market is essentially correct on home favorite probability.
- Pitcher gap minimal: Bibee (B-, 0.519 grade, 7.8 K/9) vs Poulin (C, 0.306 grade, 6.8 K/9) = modest advantage Bibee but not enough to create meaningful edge when market already pricing CLE heavy home favorite.
- Bullpen edge (CLE 3.68 ERA vs WSH 4.46 ERA) is known and priced. No information asymmetry.
- Weather neutral (63.3F, 5.2 mph wind neutral) — no environmental edge.
Risk Factors
- Heavy favorite at -178 (64% implied) inherently has flatter payout structure. Even if model 63.7% is correct, risk/reward is unfavorable for standard unit bet.
- historically mixed home ML (a supportive track record, n=165) is above 50% but not compelling enough for high-confidence near-even-odds situation.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 64.0%
+5.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+5.2 pts
Total
8.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →