WSH vs CLE prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 5.3 - WSH 3.9. CLE is favored with a 64.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
CLE
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
WSH
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEWSH
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.9% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
CLE
357
Projected
CLE 5.3 — WSH 3.9
Actual
CLE 2 — WSH 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
PJ Poulin L
WSH
ST35%79 mph25% whiff
FF29%90 mph11% whiff
SI17%89 mph0% whiff
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
FF27%94 mph11% whiff
FC26%86 mph37% whiff
CH19%81 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
63°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.016 Total: 1.008
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.46ERA
4.54FIP
8.22K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
CLE
3.68ERA
3.86FIP
10.76K/9
4.08BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-46.1% EV
-149
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-18.6% EV
-104
F5_ML AWAY
-12.4% EV
+134
ML AWAY
-9.2% EV
+150
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+5.2% EV
+125
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-1.8% EV
-118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.0 runs
31.3% win
CLE F5
3.1 runs
54.2% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
53.1%
YRFI
46.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
13%
CJ Abrams WSH28.1%
ISO: 0.302 | Barrel: 14.2% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Angel Martínez CLE22.8%
ISO: 0.127 | Barrel: 12.7% | vs PJ Poulin | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Chase DeLauter CLE21.8%
ISO: 0.154 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs PJ Poulin | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
PJ Poulin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Tanner Bibee
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Tyler Stuart SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Henry RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE3 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Erik Sabrowski RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE55.5% WR (n=165)
Model projects CLE home 63.7% (market 64.1%, -0.7% edge, ZERO value). Starting pitchers comparable quality: Tanner Bibee (B- pitcher, 0.519 grade, 7.8 K/9) vs PJ Poulin (C pitcher, 0.306 grade, 6.8 K/9) — Bibee has modest edge but insufficient to overcome market's accurate home-field pricing. Weather cool (63.3F) reduces run environment. Bullpen edge (CLE 3.68 ERA vs WSH 4.46 ERA) is built into market. No edge exists; pass.
Key Factors
- Zero edge: Model 63.7% vs market 64.1% = -0.4% edge. Market is essentially correct on home favorite probability.
- Pitcher gap minimal: Bibee (B-, 0.519 grade, 7.8 K/9) vs Poulin (C, 0.306 grade, 6.8 K/9) = modest advantage Bibee but not enough to create meaningful edge when market already pricing CLE heavy home favorite.
- Bullpen edge (CLE 3.68 ERA vs WSH 4.46 ERA) is known and priced. No information asymmetry.
- Weather neutral (63.3F, 5.2 mph wind neutral) — no environmental edge.
Risk Factors
- Heavy favorite at -178 (64% implied) inherently has flatter payout structure. Even if model 63.7% is correct, risk/reward is unfavorable for standard unit bet.
- YELLOW zone home ML (55.5% WR, n=165) is above 50% but not compelling enough for high-confidence near-even-odds situation.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 64.0%
+5.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+5.2 pts
Total
8.0
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →