WSH vs CLE prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 5.0 - WSH 4.3. CLE is favored with a 57.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 9.4 total runs.
CLE
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
WSH
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEWSH
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.0% (2,300 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
CLE
357
Projected
CLE 5.0 — WSH 4.3
Actual
CLE 3 — WSH 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cade Cavalli R
WSH
FF34%96 mph16% whiff
KC28%85 mph41% whiff
SI17%96 mph10% whiff
Joey Cantillo L
CLE
FF42%92 mph14% whiff
CH29%80 mph41% whiff
CU18%79 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
74°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.029 Total: 1.014
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.46ERA
4.54FIP
8.22K/9
3.64BB/9
1.33WHIP
CLE
3.69ERA
3.91FIP
10.69K/9
4.03BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-42.6% EV
-204
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-21.7% EV
-114
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+13.2% EV
-106
ML AWAY
-10.0% EV
+110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+8.0% EV
+168
F5_ML AWAY
-7.9% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.4 runs
40.2% win
CLE F5
2.7 runs
45.2% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
51.4%
YRFI
48.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.03
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
89%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
11%
Keibert Ruiz WSH28.8%
ISO: 0.245 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
James Wood WSH27.9%
ISO: 0.209 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.97x
Curtis Mead WSH24.1%
ISO: 0.170 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Joey Cantillo | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cade Cavalli
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Joey Cantillo
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Max Kranick RP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Stuart SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Henry RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE3 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Erik Sabrowski RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.0% WR (n=293)
Model projects 9.36 total runs into 7.5 line with over edge +13.2% (58.4% win prob) — a rare total edge driven by CLE's weak SP (Cantillo 3.29 ERA but lower command vs Cavalli at 4.17 ERA), combined with 73.7F temperature (neutral) and thin air density (1066 ft) that inflates HRs 2.9%. Weather multiplier +1.4% on totals supports the lean, but TOTAL market currently DISABLED in system calibration due to catastrophic underperformance (45% WR). Reduced confidence from 1.5 to 1 due to system-level restriction.
Key Factors
- Model 9.36 mean total vs market 7.5: +1.86 run edge (24.8% overestimation by market)
- Pitcher gap: Cantillo 3.29 ERA, 8.0 K-rate vs Cavalli 4.17 ERA, 8.0 K-rate (weak SP matchup)
- Weather: 73.7F neutral, 52% humidity, tail wind -0.6 mph (no weather edge)
- Thin air (1066 ft elevation) adds 1.4% to run multiplier — modest boost
- System grade F on totals (45% WR, n=409) — structural market weakness in this category
Risk Factors
- TOTAL market disabled: system learning suggests overweighting these edges
- Neither starter is elite — could be low-scoring despite model projection
- CLE recent form unknown; if bullpen fatigued, could suppress late-game runs
TOTALS MARKET DISABLED CAUTIONPITCHER MISMATCH MINORWEATHER NEUTRALTHIN AIR BENEFIT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 57.8%
+8.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+8.0 pts
Total
7.5
+13.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →