WSH vs CLE prediction for May 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 5.5 - WSH 4.7. CLE is favored with a 59.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.2 total runs.
CLE
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
WSH
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEWSH
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.1% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
357
CLE
467
Projected
CLE 5.5 — WSH 4.7
Actual
CLE 3 — WSH 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
PJ Poulin L
WSH
ST35%79 mph26% whiff
FF30%90 mph10% whiff
SI18%89 mph0% whiff
Gavin Williams R
CLE
FF27%96 mph25% whiff
ST26%87 mph45% whiff
CU21%83 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
71°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.989 Total: 0.991
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.48ERA
4.49FIP
8.33K/9
3.63BB/9
1.33WHIP
CLE
3.65ERA
3.84FIP
10.53K/9
3.93BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-39.0% EV
-137
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
-33.7% EV
-120
F5 OVER 4.5
+17.1% EV
+110
TOTAL OVER 8.0
+14.8% EV
-102
F5_ML HOME
-10.6% EV
-196
ML HOME
-8.0% EV
-189
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.6 runs
36.9% win
CLE F5
3.2 runs
50.5% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
49.3%
YRFI
50.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.7
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.297 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
CJ Abrams WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.313 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 0.97x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Manzardo CLE29.0%
ISO: 0.137 | Barrel: 7.2% | vs PJ Poulin | Park: 0.97x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
PJ Poulin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Max Kranick RP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Stuart SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Henry RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE3 injured
Gabriel Arias SS10-DAY-IL
Erik Sabrowski RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Hernandez RPDAY-TO-DAY
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Market priced at 8.0, model projects 10.2 total (+14.8% edge on OVER). CLE's strong bullpen (3.65 ERA, 10.53 K/9, quality 1.233) vs WSH's weak pitching (PJ Poulin N/A ERA, C grade, 18.3% K-rate) creates scoring environment. Wind is 8 mph IN (headwind, -0.9 runs), but 70.9°F is neutral. OVER edge is large but TOTALS DISABLED — downgrade confidence from +2 to +1.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch (strongly against WSH): Williams 3.51 ERA (29.1% K-rate), B grade vs Poulin unknown ERA, 18.3% K-rate, C grade. Williams ~1.5 Bayesian ERA better with elite K-rate.
- Bullpen advantage CLE: CLE 3.65 ERA (K/9: 10.53) vs WSH 4.48 ERA (K/9: 8.33) — 0.83 ERA gap favors CLE in late innings.
- Model total aggression: 10.2 mean runs projects to 60.9% OVER 8.0 edge, but historical OVER WR only 44.2%. High edge = likely overconfidence signal.
- Weather slightly suppressive: 8 mph headwind (-0.9 runs), 70.9°F neutral. Reduces expected run scoring vs model baseline.
- Away team advantage (paradox): WSH away team but model edges lean away team ML (44.1% WR) — structure unfavorable for away bets.
Risk Factors
- TOTALS disabled: Historical F grade (45.6% WR, n=412). Betting against systemic model failure.
- Model overconfidence signal: 14.8% edge correlates with 40-45% actual WR. High edge = trap indicator.
- PJ Poulin unknown stats: Listed as N/A ERA (rookie or replacement level). Could pitch better than expected or blow up.
PITCHER MISMATCHTOTALS DISABLED WARNINGHIGH EDGE OVERCONFIDENCEWEATHER SLIGHT SUPPRESSBULLPEN EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 59.4%
-5.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.8 pts
Total
8.0
+14.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.