WSH vs CWS prediction for April 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 3.2 - WSH 3.7. WSH is favored with a 53.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
CWS
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
WSH
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSWSH
-1.5
Run Line (CWS)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
WSH L5CWS W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
CWS
135
Pick Results
Tristan Peters OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
PJ Poulin L
WSH
ST35%79 mph25% whiff
FF27%90 mph9% whiff
CH20%81 mph10% whiff
Bryan Hudson L
CWS
FF52%92 mph24% whiff
ST26%81 mph17% whiff
SI16%90 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
60°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.037 Total: 1.020
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.30ERA
5.30FIP
7.84K/9
4.38BB/9
1.49WHIP
CWS
5.67ERA
5.12FIP
8.12K/9
6.28BB/9
1.69WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-42.8% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-33.0% EV
-200
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+32.2% EV
-122
F5 UNDER 5.5
+27.7% EV
-139
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-19.9% EV
+164
NRFI NRFI
+18.1% EV
-104
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
1.8 runs
40.7% win
CWS F5
1.7 runs
37.2% win
F5 Total
3.5
NRFI
63.3%
YRFI
36.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.70
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.5
Over 0.5 HR
76%
Over 1.5 HR
42%
No HR
23%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.353 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Bryan Hudson | Park: 1.01x
Colson Montgomery CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.583 | Barrel: 16.8% | vs PJ Poulin | Park: 1.01x
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.391 | Barrel: 19.8% | vs PJ Poulin | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
PJ Poulin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Bryan Hudson
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Henry RP15-DAY-IL
Ken Waldichuk RP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jarlin Susana RPDAY-TO-DAY
Travis Sykora SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE0.5% WR (n=569)
32.2% UNDER 9.5 edge exceeds calibration cap (20% max) and falls in RED zone — model overconfident. Away ML edge 9.1% reasonable but undermined by RED away zone. Avoid both.
Key Factors
- Hudson (1.83 ERA, B- ace, 27.3% K rate) vs Poulin (5.37 ERA, C+ mediocre) — pitcher dominance clear
- 32.2% UNDER edge is 1.6x the total calibration cap (20%) — model flagged as overconfident
- Model projects 6.82 total vs market 9.5 — 2.68 run discrepancy unrealistic given ballpark/weather
- WSH has strong bullpen edge (Bryan Hudson elite), CWS bullpen 5.67 ERA (worst in MLB) — supports runs suppression but not 32% worth
Risk Factors
- Under zone RED (45.6% WR, 569 bets) — market systematically beats under bets
- 32.2% edge violates 20% cap — model failure likely, especially on market total that already reflects consensus
- CWS bullpen is worst in league but game total 9.5 already factors this
HIGH EDGE WARNINGRED ZONEUNDER DISABLEDEXTREME UNDER EDGEMODEL OVERCONFIDENT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 53.9%
-19.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-19.9 pts
Total
9.5
+32.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →