WSH vs MIA prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.8 - WSH 3.7. MIA is favored with a 53.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
MIA
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
WSH
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIAWSH
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
MIA
246
Projected
MIA 3.8 — WSH 3.7
Actual
MIA 8 — WSH 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Richard Lovelady L
WSH
ST40%82 mph26% whiff
SI31%91 mph23% whiff
FF19%92 mph16% whiff
Janson Junk R
MIA
FF32%94 mph12% whiff
SL23%86 mph14% whiff
CH20%87 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
87°F15 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.082 Total: 1.045
thin air, 9mph out
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.33ERA
4.90FIP
7.71K/9
4.34BB/9
1.41WHIP
MIA
3.56ERA
3.55FIP
9.76K/9
4.74BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-37.3% EV
-152
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-25.2% EV
-118
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+16.8% EV
-104
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-16.7% EV
+126
ML HOME
-11.7% EV
-164
F5 UNDER 4.5
+10.5% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
1.9 runs
35.6% win
MIA F5
2.3 runs
46.9% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
56.0%
YRFI
44.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
71%
No HR
8%
CJ Abrams WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.348 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Janson Junk | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.276 | Barrel: 15.1% | vs Janson Junk | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Brady House WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.159 | Barrel: 7.7% | vs Janson Junk | Park: 0.93x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Richard Lovelady
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Janson Junk
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Clayton Beeter RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Baum DHDAY-TO-DAY
Ken Waldichuk RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA5 injured
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE50.6% WR (n=244)
Market pricing this at 8.5 runs in Miami heat (86.8F, 9mph wind out), but model projects only 7.52 total. The 16.8% UNDER edge (59.6% model prob) is weather-driven: hot weather ADDS runs, but Lovelady (weak arm, 2.59 ERA) vs Junk (decent arm, 3.05 ERA) suggests a low-scoring matchup. The real edge: market is overbaking the heat, missing pitcher quality.
Key Factors
- UNDER edge 16.8%: Model 7.52 total vs market 8.5 = 0.98 run gap. Weather-adjusted difference.
- Pitcher quality: Lovelady (2.59 ERA, weaker K-rate 20%) slightly better than Junk (3.05 ERA, 16.3% K-rate). Both mediocre.
- Weather paradox: 86.8F + 9mph wind out normally ADDS runs (+0.5-1.0), but model projects lower. This suggests pitcher-driven low-scoring edge.
- Retractable roof: loanDepot park has retractable roof. If closed, heat suppressed and under edge stronger.
- UNDER DISABLED: Market grade F, 46.9% WR. Major calibration warning.
Risk Factors
- UNDER is auto-disabled. Model may be systematically wrong on totals.
- Hot weather can inflate runs despite weak pitching (wind blowing out is significant).
- If roof opens, wind effect amplified and OVER likely to hit.
WEATHER IMPACTTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 53.1%
-16.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-16.7 pts
Total
8.5
+16.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →