WSH vs MIA prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 2.8 - WSH 3.4. WSH is favored with a 56.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
MIA
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
WSH
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIAWSH
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
135
MIA
135
Projected
MIA 2.8 — WSH 3.4
Actual
MIA 5 — WSH 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cade Cavalli R
WSH
FF34%96 mph16% whiff
KC24%85 mph44% whiff
SI18%96 mph13% whiff
Sandy Alcantara R
MIA
CH23%91 mph35% whiff
SI23%97 mph9% whiff
FF21%97 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
83°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.058 Total: 1.031
thin air, 5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.52ERA
5.00FIP
7.80K/9
4.34BB/9
1.44WHIP
MIA
3.68ERA
3.53FIP
9.68K/9
4.64BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-41.5% EV
-105
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-32.4% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+30.9% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-28.3% EV
+155
F5 UNDER 4.5
+27.7% EV
-120
F5_ML HOME
-19.8% EV
-123
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
1.7 runs
44.3% win
MIA F5
1.3 runs
31.4% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
65.0%
YRFI
35.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.64
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.6
Over 0.5 HR
80%
Over 1.5 HR
48%
No HR
20%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.309 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
CJ Abrams WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.359 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 0.93x Platoon: 1.12x
Brady House WSH19.9%
ISO: 0.163 | Barrel: 7.9% | vs Sandy Alcantara | Park: 0.93x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cade Cavalli
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Sandy Alcantara
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Clayton Beeter RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Baum DHDAY-TO-DAY
Ken Waldichuk RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA5 injured
Pete Fairbanks RP15-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Tinoco RPOUT
Griffin Conine LF10-DAY-IL
Adam Mazur SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE46.9% WR (n=142)
Market has priced the pitching coin-flip (Alcantara 4.33 vs Cavalli 4.48 ERA, identical K-rates) fairly; away ML edge 14.9% is within normal variance for YELLOW zone performers.
Key Factors
- Pitcher K-rates identical (8.0%) — coin-flip starting pitching, no edge attributable to SP quality
- Market ML edge: 46.3% implied (away) vs 53.2% model = 6.9% edge; WITHIN NOISE for YELLOW zone (46.9% WR, n=142)
- UNDER 8.5 has 30.9% edge but YELLOW zone (50.5% WR) — historically loses money despite high nominal edge
- Weather 83.4°F, humid, tailwind — slightly inflates runs but not sufficient to overcome model-market agreement on price
Risk Factors
- Away ML in YELLOW zone: only 46.9% WR historically; high edges do NOT translate to wins
- Totals are DISABLED (50% WR, grade D) — avoid entirely despite large apparent edges
- Market respects this matchup as close game; unlikely to have sharp money signal
NO PITCHER MISMATCHYELLOW ZONETOTALS FORBIDDEN
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 56.0%
-28.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-28.3 pts
Total
8.5
+30.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →