FINAL: NYM 8 — WSH 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYM 2.8 - WSH 2.9 (NYM at 50.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 5.7 total runs.
NYM
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
WSH
2.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMWSH
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
WSH L5NYM
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
135
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 2.8 — WSH 2.9
Actual
NYM 8 — WSH 0
Pick Results
WSH @ NYM NRFInrfiWIN+1.24u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zack Littell R
WSH
SL25%87 mph16% whiff
FF24%91 mph6% whiff
FS20%84 mph20% whiff
Clay Holmes R
NYM
SI49%94 mph8% whiff
ST17%82 mph41% whiff
CH16%89 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
52°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.025 Total: 1.016
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.15ERA
5.21FIP
8.01K/9
4.78BB/9
1.52WHIP
NYM
3.64ERA
3.40FIP
9.61K/9
3.30BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-48.6% EV
-110
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-36.8% EV
-141
F5 UNDER 4.5
+35.6% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+31.4% EV
-110
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-28.1% EV
+116
ML AWAY
+19.3% EV
+158
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
1.4 runs
35.6% win
NYM F5
1.4 runs
38.4% win
F5 Total
2.9
NRFI
66.1%
YRFI
33.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.61
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.3
Over 0.5 HR
73%
Over 1.5 HR
37%
No HR
27%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.329 | Barrel: 18.7% | vs Clay Holmes | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
CJ Abrams WSH28.9%
ISO: 0.354 | Barrel: 14.2% | vs Clay Holmes | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
MJ Melendez NYM23.7%
ISO: 0.136 | Barrel: 13.6% | vs Zack Littell | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zack Littell
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Clay Holmes
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Clayton Beeter RP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Baum DHDAY-TO-DAY
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Henry RP15-DAY-IL
Ken Waldichuk RP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Luis Robert Jr. CFDAY-TO-DAY
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Kevin Herget RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jared Young 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE54.1% WR (n=5)
Zack Littell (8.16 ERA, C+ grade, 12.8% K rate) vs Clay Holmes (2.27 ERA, C+ grade, 15.8% K rate) — AWAY pitcher has worse ERA despite being away! Market overweighting the favorite (-188 NYM), creating 19.3% edge on WSH away ML (model 46.2% vs market 38.8%); away moneyline is RED zone (42% WR) but this edge is clean, pitcher-driven, and sits in 15-20% range where 54.1% WR shown.
Key Factors
- Pitcher ERA gap: Littell 8.16 vs Holmes 2.27 = 5.89 gap (this is MASSIVE, ~25% WR swing to home)
- Market drastically overweighting NYM home advantage: -188 (65.4% fair) vs model 46.2% creates 19.3% WSH edge
- Away ML 15-20% edge zone shows 54.1% WR (n=5) — within profitable range but small sample
- Cold weather (51.5F) slight headwind but not enough to overcome pitcher advantage
- WSH with worse pitcher is away and +158 — classic away underdog trap that's actually value here
Risk Factors
- HIGH EDGE ALERT: 19.3% edge is above system wisdom cap (12%). Ask why market is this wrong — bullpen? Lineup? Mets turnaround narrative?
- Away ML Red zone (42% historical WR): This edge sits in 15-20% away range which has 54.1% WR but tiny sample (n=5)
- Mets narrative: Recently fired manager, worst record, public tanking — market might be fading them correctly
PITCHER MISMATCHAWAY VALUE TRAPHIGH EDGE WARNINGAWAY ML PROFITABLE RANGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 50.6%
-28.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-28.1 pts
Total
8.0
+31.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →