WSH vs NYM prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYM 2.2 - WSH 3.4. WSH is favored with a 62.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 5.6 total runs.
NYM
2.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
WSH
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMWSH
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
135
NYM
024
Projected
NYM 2.2 — WSH 3.4
Actual
NYM 2 — WSH 14
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cade Cavalli R
WSH
FF35%96 mph15% whiff
KC23%84 mph40% whiff
SI18%96 mph12% whiff
David Peterson L
NYM
SI34%91 mph10% whiff
FF22%92 mph29% whiff
SL19%86 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
53°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.029 Total: 1.017
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.98ERA
5.15FIP
7.89K/9
4.76BB/9
1.49WHIP
NYM
3.53ERA
3.32FIP
9.79K/9
3.29BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-41.7% EV
+142
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-39.4% EV
+102
ML AWAY
+34.4% EV
+136
ML HOME
-30.3% EV
-161
F5_ML HOME
-30.0% EV
-147
F5_ML AWAY
+27.2% EV
+118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
1.7 runs
46.7% win
NYM F5
1.0 runs
27.0% win
F5 Total
2.7
NRFI
72.2%
YRFI
27.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.49
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.1
Over 0.5 HR
67%
Over 1.5 HR
30%
No HR
33%
Joey Wiemer WSH28.7%
ISO: 0.500 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs David Peterson | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Curtis Mead WSH22.4%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs David Peterson | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
James Wood WSH20.5%
ISO: 0.315 | Barrel: 18.2% | vs David Peterson | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cade Cavalli
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
David Peterson
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Clayton Beeter RP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Baum DHDAY-TO-DAY
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Henry RP15-DAY-IL
Ken Waldichuk RP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYM8 injured
Luis Robert Jr. CFDAY-TO-DAY
Kodai Senga SP15-DAY-IL
Francisco Lindor SS10-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco 1B10-DAY-IL
Kevin Herget RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jared Young 1B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 62.5%
-41.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-41.7 pts
Total
7.5
+26.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →