FINAL: PHI 3 — WSH 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PHI 5.8 - WSH 5.7 (PHI at 51.9% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.5 total runs.
PHI
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
WSH
5.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHIWSH
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
WSH L5PHI
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
468
PHI
468
Projected
PHI 5.8 — WSH 5.7
Actual
PHI 3 — WSH 2
Pick Results
WSH MLmlLOSS-1.00u
OVER 9.5totalWIN+0.95u
WSH @ PHI NRFInrfiWIN+1.08u
WSH F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-1.00u
F5 UNDER 5.5f5_totalWIN+0.71u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
PJ Poulin L
WSH
FF43%91 mph13% whiff
ST23%79 mph36% whiff
CH22%80 mph33% whiff
Andrew Painter R
PHI
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
81°F16 mph wind
HR: 0.971 Total: 0.981
11mph in
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.07ERA
5.23FIP
9.31K/9
5.33BB/9
1.44WHIP
PHI
5.24ERA
4.80FIP
8.27K/9
2.77BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-28.0% EV
-125
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-21.8% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-19.6% EV
+104
ML AWAY
+18.0% EV
+158
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+15.8% EV
-105
ML HOME
-15.4% EV
-189
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.5 runs
42.0% win
PHI F5
2.6 runs
43.7% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
56.1%
YRFI
43.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.3
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
84%
No HR
4%
James Wood WSH21.0%
ISO: 0.221 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Andrew Painter | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Schwarber PHI18.9%
ISO: 0.346 | Barrel: 9.4% | vs PJ Poulin | Park: 1.02x
Daylen Lile WSH15.0%
ISO: 0.220 | Barrel: 5.6% | vs Andrew Painter | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
PJ Poulin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Andrew Painter
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Paxton Schultz RP15-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Joan Adon RPOUT
Tyler Stuart SPOUT
+2 more
PHI8 injured
Zack Wheeler SP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Robert RPDAY-TO-DAY
Aidan Miller SSDAY-TO-DAY
Keaton Anthony 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Bechtold 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Orion Kerkering RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 51.9%
-19.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-19.6 pts
Total
9.5
+15.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →