WSH vs PIT prediction for April 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 5.2 - WSH 4.6. PIT is favored with a 56.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
PIT
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
WSH
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITWSH
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
WSH L5PIT
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (2,040 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
357
PIT
357
Pick Results
Spencer Horwitz OVER 0.5 Strikeoutsbatter_ksWIN+2.20u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jake Irvin R
WSH
FF35%93 mph20% whiff
CU18%78 mph43% whiff
FC16%88 mph23% whiff
Mason Montgomery L
PIT
FF65%99 mph26% whiff
SL30%90 mph43% whiff
CU4%87 mph48% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
85°F14 mph wind
HR: 0.980 Total: 0.985
thin air, 13mph in
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
6.44ERA
6.31FIP
8.42K/9
5.23BB/9
1.57WHIP
PIT
3.92ERA
4.30FIP
11.17K/9
5.38BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-34.8% EV
-135
ML HOME
-9.0% EV
-182
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-8.9% EV
+113
F5_ML HOME
-6.5% EV
-175
ML AWAY
+5.8% EV
+149
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-3.6% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.5 runs
36.1% win
PIT F5
3.1 runs
50.1% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
48.0%
YRFI
52.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.0
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.261 | Barrel: 17.8% | vs Mason Montgomery | Park: 0.95x
Brandon Lowe PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.572 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Jake Irvin | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan O'Hearn PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.230 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Jake Irvin | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jake Irvin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Mason Montgomery
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Ken Waldichuk RP15-DAY-IL
Cole Henry RP15-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Jarlin Susana RPDAY-TO-DAY
Travis Sykora SPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
PIT5 injured
Mike Clevinger RPDAY-TO-DAY
Anthony Solometo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jared Jones SP60-DAY-IL
Jared Triolo SS10-DAY-IL
Oddanier Mosqueda RPDAY-TO-DAY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 56.8%
-8.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.9 pts
Total
9.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →