WSH vs SF prediction for June 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.9 - WSH 4.0. SF is favored with a 51.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
SF
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
WSH
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFWSH
-1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.4% (2,222 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
SF
246
Projected
SF 3.9 — WSH 4.0
Actual
SF 3 — WSH 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Miles Mikolas R
WSH
FF26%93 mph18% whiff
SI25%93 mph9% whiff
SL21%88 mph19% whiff
Logan Webb R
SF
SI37%92 mph12% whiff
CH23%86 mph26% whiff
ST20%84 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
58°F14 mph wind
HR: 0.955 Total: 0.973
10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.21ERA
4.64FIP
8.02K/9
3.93BB/9
1.34WHIP
SF
3.85ERA
4.36FIP
7.93K/9
4.99BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-35.2% EV
-164
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-20.2% EV
-115
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-15.8% EV
+136
ML HOME
-10.8% EV
-147
F5_ML HOME
-10.4% EV
-167
ML AWAY
+6.0% EV
+126
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.0 runs
37.4% win
SF F5
2.2 runs
45.1% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
57.8%
YRFI
42.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
13%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Miles Mikolas
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Logan Webb
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
Max Kranick RP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Stuart SPDAY-TO-DAY
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Tyler Mahle SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE48.1% WR (n=16)
SF home favorite at -147 (market 59.5% implied), model projects 51.8% home win prob (away 48.2% at 6.0% edge). Pitcher mismatch favors SF: Miles Mikolas (6.90 ERA, 14.6% K, disaster tier) vs Logan Webb (4.59 ERA, 20.3% K, C+ grade). Webb is 2.31 runs better. However, Oracle Park with brutal weather dominates: 57.8F (coldest game), 13.8 mph wind BLOWING IN (-9.8, strongest wind-in of day), marine layer, 0.88 total mult (heavily suppresses runs), 0.955 HR mult. This is BRUTAL environment suppressing scoring heavily. Model projects 7.93 total (vs 8.0 market), nearly equal. Zone YELLOW (48.1% WR for 5-10% away edge). Market -147 SF respects pitcher advantage + home field, but brutal weather and tight total projection mean NO CLEAR EDGE. Away underdog value is logical but modest at 6.0%. SKIP — too much uncertainty in weather-suppressed game.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch SF favor: Logan Webb 4.59 ERA (C+, 20.3% K) vs Miles Mikolas 6.90 ERA (C-, 14.6% K) = 2.31 gap favors home
- BRUTAL WEATHER dominates: Oracle Park 57.8F (coldest game), 13.8 mph wind blowing IN (-9.8, strongest IN of day), marine layer, 0.88 total mult (heaviest run suppression)
- Model total 7.93 vs market 8.0 = -0.07 edge (essentially ZERO) — market has priced weather correctly
- Zone YELLOW (48.1% WR) for away underdog suggests no informational edge
Risk Factors
- Weather-suppressed environment means low-scoring, close game — minimal edge opportunities
- Market -147 SF already reflects pitcher advantage + home field; no slack in the line
- Away combo zone 44.5% WR (RED) suggests away bets historically underperform, despite 6% model edge
WEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 51.8%
-15.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-15.8 pts
Total
8.0
+0.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →