WSH vs SF prediction for June 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.8 - WSH 3.8. SF is favored with a 51.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
SF
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
WSH
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFWSH
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (2,249 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
SF
246
Projected
SF 3.8 — WSH 3.8
Actual
SF 3 — WSH 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Alvarez L
WSH
SL32%84 mph38% whiff
CU31%83 mph35% whiff
FF22%93 mph5% whiff
Adrian Houser R
SF
SI47%95 mph7% whiff
CH17%85 mph30% whiff
FF14%96 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
64°F16 mph wind
HR: 0.949 Total: 0.969
12mph in
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.27ERA
4.61FIP
8.07K/9
3.91BB/9
1.36WHIP
SF
3.96ERA
4.36FIP
7.94K/9
4.97BB/9
1.41WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.5% EV
-185
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-20.2% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-12.2% EV
+152
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+11.8% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 4.5
+10.4% EV
-108
NRFI NRFI
+8.5% EV
-111
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.0 runs
40.7% win
SF F5
2.1 runs
41.6% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
61.3%
YRFI
38.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.75
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.286 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Adrian Houser | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
CJ Abrams WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.279 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Adrian Houser | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Daylen Lile WSH19.5%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 7.7% | vs Adrian Houser | Park: 0.88x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Andrew Alvarez
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Adrian Houser
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
Max Kranick RP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Stuart SPDAY-TO-DAY
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.2% WR (n=322)
Model projects 7.61 runs vs 8.5 market total (11.8% UNDER edge); Andrew Alvarez (WSH, 3.82 ERA, B grade, stuff 0.541) clearly better than Adrian Houser (SF, 5.93 ERA, C+ grade, stuff 0.11); cold (64F), strong headwind (11.9 mph IN), and Petco's -12% park suppression all support UNDER fundamentals.
Key Factors
- Cold/wind suppression: 64F + 11.9 mph IN wind are among the strongest suppressive factors on slate (HR mult 0.949, density 283)
- Pitcher dominance: Alvarez (3.82 ERA, B grade, stuff 0.541, 26.8% K) vs Houser (5.93 ERA, C+, stuff 0.11, 14.6% K) = clear edge
- Petco suppression: -12% park factor (0.88 mult) is among strongest suppressive parks in MLB
- 11.8% edge reliable: 10-15% edge bracket historically 55%+ WR; not extreme, solid
Risk Factors
- NRFI disabled: Despite this being UNDER, model has historically lost on NRFI plays; both categories related, caution warranted
- Early inning volatility: Cold/wind suppress, but Alvarez might give up a home run; unpredictable
WEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTORTOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 51.3%
-37.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.5 pts
Total
8.5
+11.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →