WSH vs SF prediction for June 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 4.1 - WSH 6.3. WSH is favored with a 63.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
SF
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
WSH
6.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFWSH
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.1% (2,257 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
468
SF
246
Projected
SF 4.1 — WSH 6.3
Actual
SF 11 — WSH 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Foster Griffin L
WSH
FC30%88 mph17% whiff
FF19%91 mph17% whiff
ST15%80 mph27% whiff
Robbie Ray L
SF
FF44%93 mph17% whiff
SL29%86 mph31% whiff
CH16%86 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
81°F6 mph wind
HR: 0.998 Total: 0.997
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.28ERA
4.79FIP
7.80K/9
4.03BB/9
1.37WHIP
SF
3.96ERA
4.36FIP
7.97K/9
5.07BB/9
1.43WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-51.5% EV
-185
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-28.5% EV
-112
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+27.7% EV
+152
F5_ML HOME
-27.2% EV
-106
F5 OVER 4.5
+25.5% EV
+104
ML HOME
-24.8% EV
-110
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
3.9 runs
58.8% win
SF F5
2.5 runs
30.0% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
44.1%
YRFI
55.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.31
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
81%
No HR
5%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Foster Griffin
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Robbie Ray
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
Max Kranick RP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Stuart SPDAY-TO-DAY
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP15-DAY-IL
Heliot Ramos LF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Jared Oliva CF60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE47.7% WR (n=163)
Market severely mispricing WSH: Robbie Ray (4.45 ERA) is struggling badly; Foster Griffin (3.92 ERA, B- grade) is clearly superior. Model 60.6% away (WSH favored) vs market 51.5% — Ray's 4.45 ERA with high BB rate (12.2%) vs Griffin's elite command (B+ grade) is 3-4 win% swing. OVER 8.5 also +20% edge.
Key Factors
- Pitcher HUGE mismatch (opposite model typical): Ray (4.45 ERA, C+ grade) vs Griffin (3.92 ERA, B- grade) — Griffin superior despite away pitcher. Market priced as coin flip.
- Park factor: Oracle Park (SF) 0.88 = -12% runs. Model total 10.4 is healthy despite park suppression, indicating offensive strength assumption.
- F5 edge +25.5%: Model 61.5% F5 over 4.5 vs market ~40%. First 5 innings HEAVILY favors WSH — sharp angle.
- Run line edge +27.7%: Model 50.7% away -1.5 (deep value), market pricing home +1.5 at 48.6%. Spread mismatch is largest on slate.
Risk Factors
- YELLOW zone on ML away shows 47.7% WR (n=163) — below breakeven. Model historically struggles with away ML picks. RUN LINE may be better vehicle.
- Oracle marine layer + 6 mph wind blowing IN reduces actual scoring potential. Model 10.4 total may be inflated.
- WSH away in West Coast travel; early game pressure could impact performance.
PITCHER MISMATCHHIGH EDGE WARNINGLINE VALUESHARP SUPPORTPARK FACTOR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 63.8%
-51.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-51.5 pts
Total
8.5
+20.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →