WSH vs TB prediction for June 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 3.9 - WSH 4.1. TB is favored with a 50.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
TB
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
WSH
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBWSH
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.6% (2,497 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
TB
246
Projected
TB 3.9 — WSH 4.1
Actual
TB 4 — WSH 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Alvarez L
WSH
CU29%83 mph35% whiff
SL29%84 mph36% whiff
FF24%92 mph8% whiff
Nick Martinez R
TB
SI31%92 mph7% whiff
CH28%78 mph31% whiff
FC20%89 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
88°F9 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
4.62ERA
4.93FIP
7.77K/9
4.06BB/9
1.38WHIP
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-34.6% EV
-196
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-14.1% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-12.4% EV
+162
F5_ML HOME
-9.6% EV
-123
ML HOME
-9.4% EV
-130
F5 UNDER 4.5
+7.9% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.1 runs
41.3% win
TB F5
2.0 runs
39.8% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
56.3%
YRFI
43.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.89
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
15%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.303 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
CJ Abrams WSH29.2%
ISO: 0.253 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.92x Platoon: 1.12x
Curtis Mead WSH25.5%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.92x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Andrew Alvarez
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Nick Martinez
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Jacob Young CFDAY-TO-DAY
Jarlin Susana RPDAY-TO-DAY
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Ken Waldichuk RP60-DAY-IL
Trevor Williams SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Irvin SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TB8 injured
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jonathan Heasley RP60-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Michael Grove RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE45.4% WR (n=116)
Model shows near-parity (50.4% home) but market is heavy favorite at -129 (56.5% implied); away underdog has slight edge (2.6% on ML, 3.8% on UNDER 8.5) but lacks conviction from pitcher quality or lineup data.
Key Factors
- SP matchup neutral: Martinez (TBD data) vs Alvarez (9.9% K-rate, B- stuff) — no clear edge
- Tropicana Field indoor neutral (1.0 HR mult, closed roof) — no weather impact
- Market heavily favoring home (-129 odds) suggests sharp consensus; model sees 50-50
Risk Factors
- Away underdog (RED zone) historically loses — even 2.6% ML edge is insufficient vs zone disadvantage
- Both pitchers lack compelling data; this is a true 50-50 game from process standpoint
CAUTIONCLOSE GAMENEUTRAL ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TB 50.4%
-12.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-12.4 pts
Total
8.5
+3.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →