FINAL: BKN 86 — CHA 117. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BKN 107.2 - CHA 110.0 (CHA at 58.3% win probability). The spread is 17.5 and the total is 219.5.
BKN
107.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 219.5
CHA
110.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
BKNCHA
+17.5
Spread (BKN)
219.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CHA W5BKN L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHA
100110120
BKN
97107117
Projected
BKN 107.2 — CHA 110.0
Actual
BKN 86 — CHA 117
Pick Results
BKN +17.5spreadLOSS-1.00u
Model Projection
MLELITE+1100
BKN ML
+33.4%
Edge
41.7%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Model gives BKN 42% win prob
Against the Spread
BKN ATS
+33.1 pts edge | 86% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
None 219.5
-6.8 pts edge | 54% under
PASS
Starting Lineups
CHA2 OUT
Kon Knueppel18.9PPG5.4RPG3.4APG
Miles Bridges17.1PPG5.8RPG3.2APG
Brandon Miller20.3PPG5.1RPG3.4APG
LaMelo Ball19.7PPG4.8RPG7.0APG
Moussa Diabate8.0PPG8.7RPG1.9APG
BKN6 OUT
Nic Claxton11.8PPG7.0RPG3.7APG
Noah Clowney12.4PPG4.2RPG1.7APG
Ziaire Williams10.3PPG2.4RPG1.1APG
Nolan Traore8.5PPG1.7RPG3.8APG
Drake Powell6.3PPG1.7RPG1.5APG
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHA 58.3%
+33.1 pts
Spread
+17.5
+33.1 pts
Total
219.5
-6.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →