FINAL: NYK 96 — CHA 110. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYK 112.3 - CHA 111.6 (NYK at 52.6% win probability). The spread is 13.0 and the total is 218.5.
NYK
112.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 218.5
CHA
111.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYKCHA
+13.0
Spread (NYK)
218.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CHA W5NYK L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHA
102112122
NYK
102112122
Projected
NYK 112.3 — CHA 111.6
Actual
NYK 96 — CHA 110
Pick Results
NYK +13.0spreadLOSS-1.00u
Model Projection
MLELITE+570
NYK ML
+37.6%
Edge
52.6%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Model gives NYK 53% win prob
Against the Spread
NYK ATS
+13.7 pts edge | 83% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
None 218.5
+5.4 pts edge | 41% under
PASS
Starting Lineups
CHA2 OUT
Kon Knueppel18.5PPG5.3RPG3.4APG
Miles Bridges17.2PPG5.9RPG3.2APG
Brandon Miller20.2PPG4.9RPG3.4APG
LaMelo Ball20.1PPG4.8RPG7.2APG
Moussa Diabate7.9PPG8.7RPG1.9APG
NYK6 OUT
Mikal Bridges14.6PPG3.9RPG3.8APG
Miles McBride11.8PPG2.4RPG2.6APG
Landry Shamet9.3PPG1.8RPG1.4APG
Jose Alvarado7.3PPG2.4RPG3.3APG
Jordan Clarkson8.7PPG1.7RPG1.4APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1GREEN ZONE64.3% WR (n=111)
13.65-point spread edge suggests market overreacted to Brunson/KAT returns, but resim already baked these in; market correction may already be priced, no independent edge remains.
Key Factors
- Brunson+KAT returns total +13.5 pts estimated swing, but model only shows -4.1 spread — market pricing higher impact
- NYK net rating only +2.0 ahead of CHA, doesn't support -13 without playoff intensity multiplier
- Home spread favorite zone is GREEN (64.3% WR), supporting spread, but magnitude is extreme
- Line movement away from NYK (toward CHA +13) signals sharp disagreement with initial public heavy NYK action
Risk Factors
- Playoff seeding race creates volatility and emotion — market may be overvaluing star returns in urgency context
- If Brunson or KAT play on minutes restrictions, edge improves to NYK
- NYK hot (5-0 L5) suggests momentum may justify -13, despite net rating gap
RESIM FRESHHIGH EDGE WARNINGDIRECTION CONFIRMEDINJURY IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYK 52.6%
+13.7 pts
Spread
+13.0
+13.7 pts
Total
218.5
+5.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →