FINAL: SAC 109 — CHA 117. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SAC 102.1 - CHA 114.1 (CHA at 80.5% win probability). The spread is 13.5 and the total is 225.5.
SAC
102.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 225.5
CHA
114.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SACCHA
+13.5
Spread (SAC)
225.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CHA W5SAC
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 77.7% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHA
104114124
SAC
92102112
Projected
SAC 102.1 — CHA 114.1
Actual
SAC 109 — CHA 117
Pick Results
SAC +12.5spreadWIN+0.91u
Model Projection
MLELITE+570
SAC ML
+4.6%
Edge
19.5%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Model gives SAC 19% win prob
Starting Lineups
CHA3 OUT
Kon Knueppel19.2PPG5.3RPG3.4APG
Miles Bridges17.4PPG5.9RPG3.4APG
Brandon Miller20.7PPG5.1RPG3.4APG
LaMelo Ball19.2PPG4.8RPG7.2APG
Coby White17.5PPG3.5RPG4.6APG
SAC8 OUT
DeMar DeRozan18.1PPG3.0RPG3.8APG
Maxime Raynaud11.0PPG7.3RPG1.2APG
Daeqwon Plowden7.6PPG3.1RPG1.1APG
Nique Clifford7.4PPG3.5RPG1.9APG
Precious Achiuwa8.7PPG6.1RPG1.3APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2GREEN ZONE54.8% WR (n=37)
Market is pricing CHA -12.5 against a SAC squad that was already 15-50 WITHOUT LaVine/Sabonis/Murray — the resim confirms this decimated lineup (DeRozan/Westbrook/Raynaud/Plowden/Clifford), and CHA's true edge over this shell roster is only ~7 pts per the model, making SAC +12.5 a massive 5.5pt cover edge.
Key Factors
- Model spread: CHA -7.0 vs market -12.5 = +12.6pt COVER EDGE for SAC +12.5 — largest on today's slate
- SAC net_rtg -10.3 vs CHA net_rtg +3.3 = 13.6pt quality gap, but market line of -12.5 FULLY prices this gap
- SAC model cover prob: 65.0% (resim, 10K sims) — model predicts SAC +12.5 covers nearly 2:1
- CHA away net_rtg: +118.0 off / 112.7 def = +5.3 net — solid road team but NOT a blowout machine
- Zone match: NBA|spread|home|underdog|any|any = GREEN, 54.8% WR across 37 tracked bets (z=+0.49)
Risk Factors
- SAC starters' DAY-TO-DAY status for LaVine/Sabonis/Murray may resolve to 'playing' — if all three return, model edge collapses significantly (combined ~10.5pt impact)
- Away spread favorite (CHA -12.5) with 10-15% edge zone shows only 37.4% WR historically — CHA may be sharp side despite size
- CHA is 32-33 (.492), not an elite team — blowout potential is real but not guaranteed vs motivated SAC scrubs playing for draft positioning
LINE VALUERESIM FRESHQUALITY MISMATCHINJURY IMPACTGREEN ZONEHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHA 80.5%
+0.8 pts
Spread
+13.5
+0.8 pts
Total
225.5
-19.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →