FINAL: SAS 129 — CHI 114. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SAS 118.8 - CHI 108.6 (SAS at 77.6% win probability). The spread is -18.5 and the total is 244.5.
SAS
118.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 244.5
CHI
108.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
SASCHI
-18.5
Spread (SAS)
244.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CHI L5SAS W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 77.7% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHI
99109119
SAS
109119129
Projected
SAS 118.8 — CHI 108.6
Actual
SAS 129 — CHI 114
Pick Results
CHI +18.5spreadWIN+0.91u
Model Projection
ATSELITE-110
CHI +18.5
+25.4%
Edge
73.0%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Possession model projects +10.2 margin vs line -18.5
Against the Spread
CHI ATS
-25.4 pts edge | 73% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
UNDER 244.5
-30.2 pts edge | 78% under
MARGINAL
Starting Lineups
CHI8 OUT
Josh Giddey17.4PPG8.4RPG9.2APG
Matas Buzelis16.4PPG5.7RPG2.0APG
Tre Jones13.2PPG3.1RPG5.5APG
Isaac Okoro9.2PPG2.8RPG1.5APG
Collin Sexton15.0PPG2.0RPG3.3APG
SAS1 OUT
De'Aaron Fox18.8PPG3.8RPG6.3APG
Devin Vassell14.2PPG3.8RPG2.5APG
Stephon Castle16.6PPG5.1RPG7.2APG
Victor Wembanyama24.2PPG11.3RPG3.0APG
Julian Champagnie11.1PPG5.7RPG1.5APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALGREEN ZONE60.0% WR (n=19)
The market (-18.5) disagrees significantly with the model (-13.1) for SAS, but SAS at 56-18 with a 5-0 L5 streak and +8.2 net rating is a legitimate powerhouse — the market may have properly priced the CHI injury/roster situation (multiple key players DTD including Anfernee Simons returning), and the spread Grade F prevents action here.
Key Factors
- SAS net rating: +8.2, 5-0 L5, 9-1 L10 — hottest team on the slate
- CHI net rating: -4.5, 1-4 L5, 3-7 L10 — cold and depleted
- Net rating gap: 12.61pts supports a large spread, but model -13.1 vs market -18.5 = 5.4pt model-market gap
- CHI returning Simons (Starter, DTD) + Ivey (Rotation, DTD) — partially addresses their roster concerns
- Away cover probability per model: 27.0% — model actually sees CHI NOT covering -18.5
Risk Factors
- Spread Grade F — no spread bets without clear edge above 10% minimum
- Market -18.5 exceeds model -13.1 by 5.4pts — market appears to know something about CHI's situation the model doesn't
- CHI away net rating: off 117.8 / def 124.5 = -6.7 away net rating (terrible road defense)
MODEL MARKET CONFLICTQUALITY MISMATCHRESIM FRESH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SAS 77.6%
-25.4 pts
Spread
-18.5
-25.4 pts
Total
244.5
-30.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →