FINAL: MIL 123 — DAL 99. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIL 113.8 - DAL 105.7 (MIL at 72.5% win probability). The spread is 2.0 and the total is 229.5.
MIL
113.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 229.5
DAL
105.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILDAL
+2.0
Spread (MIL)
229.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
DALMIL L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 77.7% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
DAL
96106116
MIL
104114124
Projected
MIL 113.8 — DAL 105.7
Actual
MIL 123 — DAL 99
Pick Results
MIL MLmlWIN+2.16u
Model Projection
MLELITE+108
MIL ML
+24.5%
Edge
72.5%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Model gives MIL 73% win prob
Against the Spread
MIL ATS
+22.1 pts edge | 74% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
UNDER 229.5
-21.0 pts edge | 69% under
MARGINAL
Starting Lineups
DAL7 OUT
Cooper Flagg20.3PPG6.5RPG4.6APG
Max Christie12.3PPG3.3RPG2.0APG
Khris Middleton10.6PPG3.8RPG2.9APG
Brandon Williams12.8PPG2.9RPG3.9APG
Daniel Gafford9.7PPG7.0RPG1.1APG
MIL8 OUT
AJ Green9.6PPG2.5RPG1.9APG
Taurean Prince7.0PPG2.5RPG1.4APG
Gary Trent Jr.8.2PPG1.0RPG1.2APG
Jericho Sims4.3PPG5.0RPG1.2APG
Ousmane Dieng6.3PPG2.6RPG1.8APG
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 72.5%
+22.1 pts
Spread
+2.0
+22.1 pts
Total
229.5
-21.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →