FINAL: PHX 123 — DEN 125. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PHX 107.5 - DEN 125.4 (DEN at 90.9% win probability). The spread is 6.0 and the total is 232.5.
PHX
107.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 232.5
DEN
125.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHXDEN
+6.0
Spread (PHX)
232.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
DEN W5PHX L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 87.2% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
DEN
115125135
PHX
98108117
Projected
PHX 107.5 — DEN 125.4
Actual
PHX 123 — DEN 125
Pick Results
DEN -5.5spreadLOSS-1.00u
Model Projection
ATSELITE-110
DEN -6.0
+35.3%
Edge
82.9%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Possession model projects -17.9 margin vs line 6.0
Against the Spread
DEN ATS
-35.3 pts edge | 83% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
None 232.5
-2.4 pts edge | 50% under
PASS
Starting Lineups
DEN1 OUT
Jamal Murray25.1PPG4.4RPG7.1APG
Nikola Jokic28.0PPG12.6RPG10.6APG
Christian Braun11.7PPG4.9RPG2.9APG
Cameron Johnson11.8PPG3.7RPG2.3APG
Aaron Gordon16.6PPG5.9RPG2.5APG
PHX6 OUT
Devin Booker25.5PPG3.9RPG5.9APG
Collin Gillespie13.3PPG4.2RPG4.8APG
Jalen Green17.6PPG3.5RPG2.8APG
Jordan Goodwin8.7PPG4.8RPG2.2APG
Oso Ighodaro6.3PPG4.9RPG2.2APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE71.2% WR (n=21)
DEN away ML sits in a GREEN zone (71.2% WR, n=21, z=1.96) as a healthy away favorite with Jokic, Murray, and Gordon all starting, while PHX is in a 1-4 L5 skid with depleted wings and our model projects DEN winning by 8.9 vs market's 6.0 — a 2.9pt model edge in DEN's favor.
Key Factors
- DEN away off_rtg 122.2 vs PHX home def_rtg 107.7 — DEN's offense should thrive against PHX's defense (gap of 14.5pts)
- Model projects DEN winning by 8.9, market has DEN -6.0 = 2.9pt model edge favoring DEN
- DEN roster nearly fully healthy: Jokic (28p, MVP-caliber), Murray (25p, All-NBA), Gordon (17p), Braun (12p), C. Johnson (12p) — all starting
- PHX missing Dillon Brooks (Surgery/OUT), Royce O'Neale (Soreness/questionable), with Grayson Allen and Mark Williams returning DAY-TO-DAY from injuries — PHX's defensive personnel is depleted
- Away ML favorite zone GREEN: 71.2% historical WR (n=21, z=1.96) — structurally profitable niche
Risk Factors
- Away ML combo zone is RED (45.3% WR, n=107) — the broader away ML category drags on the more specific away-favorite GREEN zone
- PHX home defense is strong at 107.7 def_rtg — their best characteristic; Devin Booker (26p) can carry PHX's offense to keep it competitive
- DEN L5: 3-2, not dominant; PHX is 1-4 L5 but still a playoff team (40-32) capable of competitive home games; model edge at 2.9pts is meaningful but modest
GREEN ZONELINE VALUEQUALITY MISMATCHINJURY IMPACTMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DEN 90.9%
-35.3 pts
Spread
+6.0
-35.3 pts
Total
232.5
-2.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →