FINAL: SAS 131 — DEN 136. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SAS 113.8 - DEN 115.4 (DEN at 54.7% win probability). The spread is -4.5 and the total is 240.0.
SAS
113.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 240.0
DEN
115.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
SASDEN
-4.5
Spread (SAS)
240.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
DEN W5SAS W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
DEN
105115125
SAS
104114124
Projected
SAS 113.8 — DEN 115.4
Actual
SAS 131 — DEN 136
Pick Results
DEN +6.0spreadWIN+0.91u
Model Projection
MLELITE+158
DEN ML
+15.9%
Edge
54.7%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Model gives DEN 55% win prob
Against the Spread
DEN ATS
-10.4 pts edge | 58% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
UNDER 240.0
-22.2 pts edge | 70% under
MARGINAL
Starting Lineups
DEN3 OUT
Nikola Jokic28.6PPG12.5RPG10.4APG
Christian Braun10.8PPG4.9RPG2.9APG
Cameron Johnson11.2PPG3.7RPG2.4APG
Tim Hardaway Jr.14.0PPG2.6RPG1.3APG
Bruce Brown7.5PPG3.9RPG2.2APG
SAS4 OUT
De'Aaron Fox19.0PPG3.7RPG6.3APG
Devin Vassell14.2PPG3.9RPG2.4APG
Stephon Castle16.4PPG4.9RPG6.9APG
Julian Champagnie11.2PPG5.8RPG1.5APG
Keldon Johnson12.9PPG5.5RPG1.3APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE84.1% WR (n=10)
San Antonio is a 4.5-point home favorite at 48-17 and 5-0 L5, but the resimulated model — which already reflects Wembanyama's likely absence (not in SAS starters, resim triggered by his Soreness status) — projects a near pick'em at SAS -0.6, suggesting DEN +4.5 offers significant spread value with Jokic (29p) dominating against a Wemby-less frontcourt.
Key Factors
- Model spread: SAS -0.6 vs market -4.5 = 3.9pt edge toward DEN (spread_edge = -10.4, model sees near pick'em after Wemby resim)
- SAS resimulated with Wembanyama (All-Star tier, -5.5pt) listed as DAY-TO-DAY Soreness — NOT in SAS starters (Fox, Vassell, Castle, Champagnie, K.Johnson). Model fully reflects his absence
- DEN starters: Jokic (29p), Braun (11p), C.Johnson (11p), Hardaway (14p), B.Brown (8p) — Jokic vs Wemby-less SAS is a massive advantage; DEN away off_rtg 121.8 (elite) vs SAS home def_rtg 111.2
- SAS net rating +7.2 (with Wemby) — without Wemby this shrinks dramatically; DEN net rating +4.0 with Jokic as anchor
- SAS 5-0 L5, 9-1 L10 — hot streak may already be priced in; DEN won big at Houston last night (ESPN headline confirms) — momentum on DEN's side
Risk Factors
- Wembanyama is Day-to-Day (not confirmed OUT) — if Wemby plays, SAS +7.2 net rating vs DEN makes SAS the clearly correct favorite and DEN cover probability collapses
- DEN: Aaron Gordon (D2D Starter tier, -2.5pt) also questionable — DEN lineup may be further depleted than shown
- SAS home advantage: 120.6 home off_rtg vs DEN away def_rtg 117.1 — SAS offense is elite at home even without Wemby (De'Aaron Fox 19p anchors)
INJURY IMPACTRESIM FRESHLINE VALUEMODEL MARKET CONFLICTGREEN ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DEN 54.7%
-10.4 pts
Spread
-4.5
-10.4 pts
Total
240.0
-22.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →