FINAL: UTA 117 — DEN 130. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected UTA 109.4 - DEN 134.6 (DEN at 96.7% win probability). The spread is 17.0 and the total is 249.5.
UTA
109.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 249.5
DEN
134.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
UTADEN
+17.0
Spread (UTA)
249.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
DEN W5UTA L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 99.0% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
DEN
125135145
UTA
99109119
Projected
UTA 109.4 — DEN 134.6
Actual
UTA 117 — DEN 130
Pick Results
DEN -17.5spreadLOSS-1.00u
Model Projection
ATSELITE-110
DEN -17.0
+26.3%
Edge
73.9%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Possession model projects -25.3 margin vs line 17.0
Starting Lineups
DEN3 OUT
Jamal Murray25.5PPG4.4RPG7.2APG
Nikola Jokic27.9PPG12.9RPG10.8APG
Christian Braun11.6PPG4.7RPG2.8APG
Cameron Johnson11.8PPG3.6RPG2.3APG
Peyton Watson14.8PPG4.9RPG2.1APG
UTA7 OUT
Kennedy Chandler14.2PPG3.2RPG6.8APG
Bez Mbeng4.8PPG3.6RPG3.5APG
Ace Bailey13.5PPG4.1RPG1.8APG
Cody Williams8.1PPG2.8RPG1.7APG
Svi Mykhailiuk9.2PPG2.4RPG1.9APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE75.9% WR (n=20)
DEN is crushing UTA (12.5pt net gap, 27pt record gap). Markkanen return (+8.0) helps UTA but doesn't overcome DEN superiority. Model (-15) is tighter than market (-17), suggesting market is overweighting UTA resistance post-Markkanen. DEN -15 to -16 is fair; -17 is slight lean toward DEN.
Key Factors
- DEN net rating +4.6, UTA -7.9 = 12.5pt quality gap (massive)
- DEN 48-28 (winning team), UTA 21-55 (worst record, tanking), 27pt record gap is extreme
- Lauri Markkanen returning to UTA (MVP-CANDIDATE, +8.0pt impact in sim) — but even with this, UTA is still 21-55 and broken
- Model (-15.0) is 2pts tighter than market (-17.0) — possibly underweighting Markkanen's impact relative to UTA's overall badness
Risk Factors
- Away favorite spread zone at large edge: 40.8% WR historically (weak) — even elite teams struggle
- Markkanen return might create false hope for UTA; team is still bottom-5 in league
- DEN rest advantage: 3 days (neutral, good for DEN but not a surprise)
AWAY FAVORITE SPREAD WEAKNESS (zone 40.8% WR)MVP RETURN (Markkanen +8.0)DEN ELITE STATUS (48-28 record, +4.6 net)MODEL MARKET CONFLICT (2pts, favors DEN)PREFER ML TO SPREAD
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DEN 96.7%
-26.3 pts
Spread
+17.0
-26.3 pts
Total
249.5
-12.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →