NBA Basketball

DET vs CLE Prediction

May 11, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

DET vs CLE prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 111.4 - DET 107.6. CLE is favored with a 61.2% win probability. The spread is -3.5 and the total is 213.5.

CLE
111.4
Projected Score
VS O/U 213.5
DET
107.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
61.2%
38.8%
CLEDET
-3.5
Spread (CLE)
213.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
DET W5CLE W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (1,191 games)

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

DET
98108118
CLE
101111121
FINALCLE 112 — DET 103
Projected
CLE 111.4 — DET 107.6
Actual
CLE 112 — DET 103

Pick Results

Evan Mobley OVER 13.5 pointsnba_player_pointsWIN+0.94u
James Harden OVER 30.5 pranba_player_points_rebounds_assistsWIN+1.46u
Dennis Schroder OVER 1.5 reboundsnba_player_reboundsWIN+1.22u
Model Confidence40/100 (MARGINAL)

Starting Lineups

DETHealthy
Cade Cunningham23.9PPG5.5RPG9.9APG
Jalen Duren19.5PPG10.5RPG2.0APG
Tobias Harris13.3PPG5.1RPG2.5APG
Duncan Robinson12.2PPG2.7RPG2.1APG
Ausar Thompson9.9PPG5.7RPG3.1APG
CLEHealthy
James Harden23.6PPG4.8RPG8.0APG
Donovan Mitchell27.9PPG4.5RPG5.7APG
Evan Mobley18.2PPG9.0RPG3.6APG
Jarrett Allen15.4PPG8.5RPG1.8APG
Jaylon Tyson13.2PPG5.1RPG2.2APG

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
CLE 61.2%
+0.3 pts
Spread
-3.5
+0.3 pts
Total
213.5
+5.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

Want Premium Predictions?

Get full access to all picks, detailed game-by-game analysis, and Kelly-optimized unit sizing across 9 leagues.

Go Premium Free Picks