DET vs CLE prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 111.4 - DET 107.6. CLE is favored with a 61.2% win probability. The spread is -3.5 and the total is 213.5.
CLE
111.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 213.5
DET
107.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEDET
-3.5
Spread (CLE)
213.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
DET W5CLE W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
98108118
CLE
101111121
Projected
CLE 111.4 — DET 107.6
Actual
CLE 112 — DET 103
Pick Results
Evan Mobley OVER 13.5 pointsnba_player_pointsWIN+0.94u
James Harden OVER 30.5 pranba_player_points_rebounds_assistsWIN+1.46u
Dennis Schroder OVER 1.5 reboundsnba_player_reboundsWIN+1.22u
Starting Lineups
DETHealthy
Cade Cunningham23.9PPG5.5RPG9.9APG
Jalen Duren19.5PPG10.5RPG2.0APG
Tobias Harris13.3PPG5.1RPG2.5APG
Duncan Robinson12.2PPG2.7RPG2.1APG
Ausar Thompson9.9PPG5.7RPG3.1APG
CLEHealthy
James Harden23.6PPG4.8RPG8.0APG
Donovan Mitchell27.9PPG4.5RPG5.7APG
Evan Mobley18.2PPG9.0RPG3.6APG
Jarrett Allen15.4PPG8.5RPG1.8APG
Jaylon Tyson13.2PPG5.1RPG2.2APG
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 61.2%
+0.3 pts
Spread
-3.5
+0.3 pts
Total
213.5
+5.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →