FINAL: WAS 95 — DET 117. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected WAS 100.5 - DET 110.6 (DET at 78.4% win probability). The spread is 14.0 and the total is 231.5.
WAS
100.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 231.5
DET
110.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
WASDET
+14.0
Spread (WAS)
231.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
DET W5WAS L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 77.7% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
101111121
WAS
91100110
Projected
WAS 100.5 — DET 110.6
Actual
WAS 95 — DET 117
Pick Results
WAS +16.0spreadLOSS-1.00u
Model Projection
MLELITE+660
WAS ML
+8.4%
Edge
21.6%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
90
Quality
Model gives WAS 22% win prob
Against the Spread
WAS ATS
+7.8 pts edge | 60% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
UNDER 231.5
-34.6 pts edge | 82% under
MARGINAL
Starting Lineups
DET3 OUT
Tobias Harris13.2PPG5.2RPG2.3APG
Jalen Duren19.0PPG10.6RPG1.7APG
Duncan Robinson11.8PPG2.7RPG2.0APG
Ausar Thompson10.0PPG5.8RPG2.9APG
Kevin Huerter9.7PPG3.5RPG2.5APG
WAS8 OUT
Julian Reese9.2PPG9.4RPG1.8APG
Bub Carrington10.0PPG3.6RPG4.5APG
Alondes Williams11.0PPG6.2RPG3.0APG
Tre Johnson12.4PPG2.8RPG2.0APG
Kadary Richmond8.3PPG3.3RPG2.7APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE22.1% WR (n=17)
Cade Cunningham (collapsed lung, extended absence) fundamentally changes this game post-model-set, but WAS is 0-10 L10 and 16-52 — the market has already moved 2pts toward WAS and the sim shows a 22pt spread_edge that cannot be trusted given the star absence and WAS's catastrophic form.
Key Factors
- DET net rating +7.7 vs WAS -11.2 = 18.9pt quality gap (2nd best in East vs worst team)
- WAS record 16-52, L10: 0-10, L5: 0-5 — most catastrophic recent form in NBA
- Cade Cunningham OUT (collapsed lung) per ESPN — All-Star tier, estimated -5.5pt swing not in sim
- Sharp money: Line moved from +16.0 to +14.0 (2pt toward WAS) — market respecting Cunningham news
- Model spread_edge 22.1 qualifies as HIGH_EDGE_WARNING — extreme disagreement with efficient market
Risk Factors
- Cade Cunningham collapsed lung means DET lost their primary creator — sim predates this news
- WAS 0-10 L10 streak suggests utter lack of competitiveness regardless of spread
- Away underdog ML historically 11.4% WR (RED zone) — WAS ML is a poison play
DATA INTEGRITYINJURY IMPACTHIGH EDGE WARNINGSHARP SUPPORTMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 78.4%
+7.8 pts
Spread
+14.0
+7.8 pts
Total
231.5
-34.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →