FINAL: DEN 116 — GSW 93. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DEN 131.4 - GSW 108.1 (DEN at 95.5% win probability). The spread is -12.5 and the total is 237.5.
DEN
131.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 237.5
GSW
108.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
DENGSW
-12.5
Spread (DEN)
237.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
GSWDEN W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 99.0% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
GSW
98108118
DEN
121131141
Projected
DEN 131.4 — GSW 108.1
Actual
DEN 116 — GSW 93
Pick Results
DEN -11.5spreadWIN+0.91u
Model Projection
ATSELITE-110
DEN -12.5
+26.4%
Edge
78.8%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Possession model projects +23.4 margin vs line -12.5
Against the Spread
DEN ATS
+26.4 pts edge | 79% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
None 237.5
+1.0 pts edge | 47% under
PASS
Starting Lineups
GSW7 OUT
Brandin Podziemski13.2PPG5.3RPG3.8APG
Draymond Green8.5PPG5.6RPG5.4APG
Kristaps Porzingis17.1PPG5.0RPG2.7APG
De'Anthony Melton13.0PPG3.2RPG2.5APG
Gui Santos8.9PPG3.8RPG2.3APG
DENHealthy
Jamal Murray25.5PPG4.4RPG7.2APG
Nikola Jokic27.9PPG12.8RPG10.8APG
Christian Braun11.6PPG4.8RPG2.8APG
Cameron Johnson11.9PPG3.7RPG2.3APG
Peyton Watson14.9PPG4.9RPG2.0APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE85.1% WR (n=34)
Denver (47-28, 5-0 last 5) with Jokic (28pts projected) at altitude hosts a Warriors team missing Stephen Curry (Soreness) and Jimmy Butler (Surgery) — the model and market agree on DEN -12.5 with essentially zero disagreement (0.68pt edge), making this a clean HOME FAVORITE ML in the strongest GREEN zone at a playable price.
Key Factors
- GSW missing: Stephen Curry (Soreness) — All-NBA tier ~-6.5pts; Jimmy Butler (Surgery) — All-Star ~-5.5pts; Combined ~12pt GSW depletion
- DEN home net rating vs GSW away: DEN home off-rtg (119.5) vs GSW away def-rtg (114.2) = +5.3pt DEN scoring edge
- Model: DEN wins 83.6% probability by 13.9pts; market: DEN -12.5 — nearly perfect model-market agreement (0.68pt edge)
- DEN 5-0 in last 5, 8-2 in last 10 — peak form; GSW 3-2 in last 5 but without star players
- Jokic (28p) + Murray (26p) + Braun (12p) + C.Johnson (12p) + Watson (15p) = DEN elite starting unit vs GSW reserves
Risk Factors
- DEN home net rating: +4.5 (off 119.5, def 115.0) — solid but not dominant; altitude provides extra edge
- GSW starting Porzingis (17p) + Draymond (8p) + Podziemski (13p) — not completely devoid of talent, Porzingis is a legitimate scorer
- 30-day by_prob|70-80% bucket: 33.3% WR (1-2) — HIGH probability picks have recently underperformed; DEN at 83.6% wins in this danger zone
GREEN ZONEINJURY IMPACTDIRECTION CONFIRMEDRESIM FRESH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DEN 95.5%
+26.4 pts
Spread
-12.5
+26.4 pts
Total
237.5
+1.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →