FINAL: DEN 129 — HOU 93. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DEN 120.2 - HOU 116.0 (DEN at 63.2% win probability). The spread is -7.5 and the total is 230.5.
DEN
120.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 230.5
HOU
116.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
DENHOU
-7.5
Spread (DEN)
230.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
HOUDEN W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.1% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
106116126
DEN
110120130
Projected
DEN 120.2 — HOU 116.0
Actual
DEN 129 — HOU 93
Pick Results
HOU +7.0spreadLOSS-1.00u
Model Projection
ATSSTRONG-110
HOU +7.5
+9.9%
Edge
57.5%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Possession model projects +4.2 margin vs line -7.5
Against the Spread
HOU ATS
-9.9 pts edge | 58% cover
STRONG
Over/Under
None 230.5
+7.0 pts edge | 41% under
PASS
Starting Lineups
HOU4 OUT
Amen Thompson17.7PPG7.6RPG5.3APG
Kevin Durant26.1PPG5.5RPG4.5APG
Jabari Smith Jr.15.4PPG6.8RPG1.8APG
Alperen Sengun20.3PPG9.1RPG6.1APG
Tari Eason10.9PPG6.2RPG1.6APG
DEN3 OUT
Nikola Jokic28.9PPG12.5RPG10.3APG
Christian Braun10.6PPG4.9RPG2.9APG
Aaron Gordon17.3PPG6.2RPG2.6APG
Tim Hardaway Jr.14.0PPG2.6RPG1.3APG
Bruce Brown7.5PPG4.0RPG2.2APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE84.1% WR (n=11)
Market has DEN -7 (heavily favored at home), but HOU has a SUPERIOR net_rtg (+4.95 vs DEN's +3.52), Jamal Murray is OUT with a sprain (All-NBA -6.5pt impact not reflected as a resim trigger — a potential underpricing of the Murray absence), and the resimmed model gives HOU a 34.9% win probability which at a +7 spread implies the market may be overvaluing DEN's home court in this seeding context.
Key Factors
- HOU net_rtg +4.95 vs DEN net_rtg +3.52 — HOU is the BETTER team by net rating despite DEN being home favorite at -7
- Jamal Murray OUT (Sprain) for DEN — All-NBA tier guard, estimated -6.5pt swing. Murray is NOT listed as a resim trigger — the resim may be accounting for his absence but it's unconfirmed
- Model predicts DEN -5.7 (resim) vs market -7.0 = 1.3pt edge for HOU +7.0 on the spread (modest)
- HOU away off_rtg: 116.1 vs DEN home def_rtg: 115.3 — HOU offense actually exploits DEN defense adequately
- HOU ML win prob per model: 34.9% — market-implied at ~22% (DEN -7 implies ~70% win). At +7 ML odds HOU likely +220 to +240 range
Risk Factors
- DEN altitude advantage (+4.5 HCA baseline) is one of the strongest in the league — HOU traveling to Mile High is a real fatigue factor not fully reflected in ratings
- DEN has Jokic (MVP-caliber, 29p projected) — single most dominant player in the game; his matchup vs Sengun is critical
- Recent form both teams 2-3 L5 — both in minor slumps, making this a volatile matchup; HOU missing FredVanVleet (Surgery) limits backcourt depth
INJURY IMPACTRESIM FRESHLINE VALUEMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DEN 63.2%
-9.9 pts
Spread
-7.5
-9.9 pts
Total
230.5
+7.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →