FINAL: CHA 124 — MEM 101. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHA 116.9 - MEM 108.0 (CHA at 73.6% win probability). The spread is -18.5 and the total is 233.5.
CHA
116.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 233.5
MEM
108.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHAMEM
-18.5
Spread (CHA)
233.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MEMCHA W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 77.7% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
MEM
98108118
CHA
107117127
Projected
CHA 116.9 — MEM 108.0
Actual
CHA 124 — MEM 101
Pick Results
MEM +18.5spreadLOSS-1.00u
Model Projection
ATSELITE-110
MEM +18.5
+27.7%
Edge
75.3%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Possession model projects +8.9 margin vs line -18.5
Against the Spread
MEM ATS
-27.7 pts edge | 75% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
UNDER 233.5
-17.6 pts edge | 65% under
MARGINAL
Starting Lineups
MEM12 OUT
Jaylen Wells12.7PPG3.3RPG1.6APG
Tyler Burton8.6PPG4.4RPG0.8APG
Cam Spencer11.4PPG2.6RPG5.4APG
Walter Clayton Jr.7.1PPG2.0RPG3.9APG
Javon Small9.0PPG3.1RPG3.7APG
CHA1 OUT
Kon Knueppel19.3PPG5.3RPG3.4APG
Miles Bridges17.4PPG5.9RPG3.3APG
Brandon Miller20.4PPG5.0RPG3.5APG
LaMelo Ball19.5PPG4.8RPG7.1APG
Coby White17.7PPG3.4RPG4.4APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE88.9% WR (n=29)
CHA is a legitimate home favorite (36-34, 4-1 L5, net rtg +3.7) against a catastrophically depleted MEM (24-45, 1-9 L10, no Ja Morant/Edey/Aldama/Pippen/KCP) — but the market has already overadjusted to -18.5/-2200 ML making the ML unplayable juice; the spread edge shows model disagreement with market.
Key Factors
- CHA net rating +3.7 vs MEM -2.7 = 6.3pt quality gap; CHA home net rating significantly positive
- Sharp money moved CHA spread from -15.5 to -18.5 (3.0pt move toward home) — significant sharp line movement
- MEM starters: Jaylen Wells, Tyler Burton, Cam Spencer, Walter Clayton Jr., Javon Small — no recognizable starters (Ja Morant sprain, Edey surgery, Aldama surgery, Pippen surgery, KCP surgery)
- Model spread: -12.3, Market spread: -18.5 = 6.2pt gap — model says CHA wins but by less than market implies; home cover prob only 24.7%
- CHA LaMelo Ball (20p) and Brandon Miller (20p) healthy; MEM away net rating is -4.45 (119.5 def rating away)
Risk Factors
- CHA -18.5 spread home cover prob: 24.7% per model — despite being right team, too much chalk on the spread side
- Line moved sharply from -15.5 to -18.5 — buying into a bad number after a 3-point sharp move
- CHA ML at -2200 requires 95.7% WR to break even — model shows only 73.6% win probability
LINE VALUEHIGH EDGE WARNINGSHARP SUPPORTINJURY IMPACTMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHA 73.6%
-27.7 pts
Spread
-18.5
-27.7 pts
Total
233.5
-17.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →