FINAL: DET 113 — MIN 108. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DET 108.5 - MIN 105.9 (DET at 58.6% win probability). The spread is -5.0 and the total is 222.5.
DET
108.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 222.5
MIN
105.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETMIN
-5.0
Spread (DET)
222.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIN L5DET W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
96106116
DET
99108118
Projected
DET 108.5 — MIN 105.9
Actual
DET 113 — MIN 108
Pick Results
MIN +3.5spreadLOSS-0.50u
Model Projection
MLGOOD+172
MIN ML
+4.6%
Edge
41.4%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
75
Quality
Model gives MIN 41% win prob
Starting Lineups
MIN2 OUT
Julius Randle21.0PPG6.8RPG5.1APG
Rudy Gobert11.1PPG11.5RPG1.7APG
Donte DiVincenzo12.5PPG4.3RPG4.0APG
Ayo Dosunmu14.6PPG3.4RPG3.7APG
Naz Reid13.6PPG6.3RPG2.3APG
DET3 OUT
Tobias Harris13.3PPG5.2RPG2.6APG
Jalen Duren19.5PPG10.6RPG1.8APG
Duncan Robinson12.0PPG2.7RPG2.1APG
Ausar Thompson9.9PPG5.8RPG2.9APG
Kevin Huerter10.0PPG3.5RPG2.5APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2YELLOW ZONE55.5% WR (n=8)
Critical data integrity failure: Cade Cunningham (OUT, collapsed lung) still listed as DET starter in sim. Model predictions unreliable. Additionally, spread edge contradicts injury reality (Cunningham OUT should help DET, not hurt).
Key Factors
- Cade Cunningham listed as starter but OUT per ESPN (collapsed lung, out at least another week) — DATA INTEGRITY ISSUE
- Sharp money 3pt move (-2.0 to -5.0) indicates professional consensus that DET should be larger favorite, possibly accounting for Cunningham absence better than model
- Anthony Edwards OUT properly resimulated (MVP tier, -8pt impact)
- DET net rating +8.08 vs MIN +3.45 (4.6pt gap) supports DET favoritism
Risk Factors
- Simulator has stale or incorrect DET roster (Cunningham listed as starter but OUT). All predictions unreliable until verified.
- If Cunningham OUT is properly priced, market's -5.0 is justified and model's -3.5 is conservative. No edge for us.
- Strong sharp action against model (3pt move) suggests sharps are betting DET heavy. Going against sharp action is risky.
DATA INTEGRITYSTALE LINEUPINJURY PRICED UNCLEARSHARP OPPOSITION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 58.6%
-2.4 pts
Spread
-5.0
-2.4 pts
Total
222.5
-8.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →