FINAL: LAL 110 — OKC 115. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAL 106.5 - OKC 110.6 (OKC at 61.5% win probability). The spread is 12.5 and the total is 214.5.
LAL
106.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 214.5
OKC
110.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
LALOKC
+12.5
Spread (LAL)
214.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
OKC W5LAL L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
OKC
101111121
LAL
97106116
Projected
LAL 106.5 — OKC 110.6
Actual
LAL 110 — OKC 115
Pick Results
LAL +10.5spreadWIN+0.45u
Rui Hachimura UNDER 2.5 threesnba_player_threesLOSS-1.50u
Cason Wallace OVER 1.5 assistsnba_player_assistsLOSS-1.50u
Marcus Smart UNDER 12.5 pointsnba_player_pointsWIN+0.88u
Model Projection
MLELITE+460
LAL ML
+20.6%
Edge
38.5%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Model gives LAL 38% win prob
Against the Spread
LAL ATS
+8.4 pts edge | 73% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
None 214.5
+2.6 pts edge | 46% under
PASS
Starting Lineups
OKC2 OUT
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander31.1PPG4.3RPG6.6APG
Chet Holmgren17.1PPG8.9RPG1.7APG
Luguentz Dort8.3PPG3.6RPG1.2APG
Cason Wallace8.6PPG3.1RPG2.6APG
Ajay Mitchell13.6PPG3.3RPG3.6APG
LAL1 OUT
Austin Reaves23.3PPG4.7RPG5.5APG
LeBron James20.9PPG6.1RPG7.2APG
Marcus Smart9.3PPG2.8RPG3.0APG
Rui Hachimura11.5PPG3.3RPG0.8APG
Deandre Ayton12.5PPG8.0RPG0.8APG
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OKC 61.5%
+8.4 pts
Spread
+12.5
+8.4 pts
Total
214.5
+2.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →