FINAL: LAL 110 — OKC 115. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAL 106.5 - OKC 110.6 (OKC at 61.5% win probability). The spread is 12.5 and the total is 214.5.
LAL
106.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 214.5
OKC
110.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
LALOKC
+12.5
Spread (LAL)
214.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
OKC W5LAL L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.4% (1,196 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
OKC
101111121
LAL
97106116
Projected
LAL 106.5 — OKC 110.6
Actual
LAL 110 — OKC 115
Pick Results
LAL +10.5spreadWIN+0.45u
Model Projection
MLELITE+460
LAL ML
+20.6%
Edge
38.5%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Model gives LAL 38% win prob
Against the Spread
LAL ATS
+8.4 pts edge | 73% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
None 214.5
+2.6 pts edge | 46% under
PASS
Starting Lineups
OKC2 OUT
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander31.1PPG4.3RPG6.6APG
Chet Holmgren17.1PPG8.9RPG1.7APG
Luguentz Dort8.3PPG3.6RPG1.2APG
Cason Wallace8.6PPG3.1RPG2.6APG
Ajay Mitchell13.6PPG3.3RPG3.6APG
LAL1 OUT
Austin Reaves23.3PPG4.7RPG5.5APG
LeBron James20.9PPG6.1RPG7.2APG
Marcus Smart9.3PPG2.8RPG3.0APG
Rui Hachimura11.5PPG3.3RPG0.8APG
Deandre Ayton12.5PPG8.0RPG0.8APG
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OKC 61.5%
+8.4 pts
Spread
+12.5
+8.4 pts
Total
214.5
+2.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →