FINAL: BOS 113 — ORL 108. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BOS 106.6 - ORL 105.4 (BOS at 52.9% win probability). The spread is 12.0 and the total is 218.5.
BOS
106.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 218.5
ORL
105.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSORL
+12.0
Spread (BOS)
218.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
ORL L4BOS L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
ORL
95105115
BOS
97107117
Projected
BOS 106.6 — ORL 105.4
Actual
BOS 113 — ORL 108
Pick Results
BOS +12.0spreadWIN+0.91u
Model Projection
MLELITE+540
BOS ML
+37.3%
Edge
52.9%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Model gives BOS 53% win prob
Against the Spread
BOS ATS
+13.2 pts edge | 83% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
None 218.5
-6.4 pts edge | 62% under
PASS
Starting Lineups
ORL2 OUT
Paolo Banchero22.2PPG8.4RPG5.1APG
Desmond Bane20.2PPG4.1RPG4.2APG
Franz Wagner20.6PPG5.2RPG3.4APG
Anthony Black15.0PPG3.8RPG3.7APG
Wendell Carter Jr.11.9PPG7.4RPG2.0APG
BOS7 OUT
Baylor Scheierman5.2PPG3.4RPG1.4APG
Jordan Walsh5.3PPG3.9RPG0.8APG
Luka Garza7.8PPG4.0RPG1.0APG
Hugo Gonzalez3.9PPG3.3RPG0.5APG
Ron Harper Jr.3.4PPG1.5RPG0.6APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1RED ZONE12.0% WR (n=13)
Critical data integrity failure: roster corruption makes the +13.2 spread edge unreliable despite Green zone classification; recommend waiting for corrected lineup data.
Key Factors
- Jaylen Brown return +8.0 pts, but model only shows +3.4 spread — gross discrepancy suggests modeling issue
- Away spread favorite with +13.2 edge lands in RED ZONE (12% historical WR) — category is systematically losing
- BOS-ORL net rating gap only +7.23 pts; doesn't support -13 spread without star adjustment
- Total edge -6.43 suggests under is over-juiced
Risk Factors
- DATA_INTEGRITY: Roster lists wrong players as starters (Scheierman, Walsh, Garza not Boston rotation)
- Away favorite spread historically 27.3% combo zone WR — extremely poor historical performance
- If Brown plays but on minutes restriction, edge vaporizes
DATA INTEGRITYHIGH EDGE WARNINGRESIM FRESHRED ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 52.9%
+13.2 pts
Spread
+12.0
+13.2 pts
Total
218.5
-6.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →