FINAL: BOS 97 — PHI 111. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BOS 111.4 - PHI 105.0 (BOS at 68.4% win probability). The spread is -14.5 and the total is 217.5.
BOS
111.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 217.5
PHI
105.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSPHI
-14.5
Spread (BOS)
217.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PHI W4BOS L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 75.9% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
95105115
BOS
101111121
Projected
BOS 111.4 — PHI 105.0
Actual
BOS 97 — PHI 111
Pick Results
BOS -14.5spreadLOSS-0.50u
Model Projection
MLELITE+700
PHI ML
+19.1%
Edge
31.6%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Model gives PHI 32% win prob
Against the Spread
PHI ATS
-8.1 pts edge | 73% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
None 217.5
-1.2 pts edge | 53% under
PASS
Starting Lineups
PHI1 OUT
Tyrese Maxey28.3PPG4.1RPG6.6APG
VJ Edgecombe16.0PPG5.6RPG4.2APG
Kelly Oubre Jr.14.1PPG5.0RPG1.6APG
Paul George17.3PPG5.3RPG3.6APG
Quentin Grimes13.4PPG3.6RPG3.3APG
BOSHealthy
Jaylen Brown28.7PPG6.9RPG5.1APG
Derrick White16.5PPG4.4RPG5.4APG
Jayson Tatum21.7PPG10.0RPG5.3APG
Payton Pritchard17.0PPG3.9RPG5.2APG
Nikola Vucevic15.1PPG8.4RPG3.3APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1GREEN ZONE85.3% WR (n=11)
Home favorite (BOS) is in GREEN zone (85.3% ML WR) but market has already incorporated the advantage with -14.5 spread vs model -9.2 — no informational edge remains after Embiid's ambiguous DAY-TO-DAY status.
Key Factors
- BOS net rating +7.99 vs PHI -0.22 = 8.2pt quality gap (elite vs league-average)
- Home favorite ML in GREEN zone: 85.3% historical WR across 11+ tracked samples
- Spread edge -5.3pts: model expects BOS -9.2 but market prices -14.5 (market ahead by 5.3pts)
- Joel Embiid returning from surgery to DAY-TO-DAY status: ~5.5pt MVP swing if he plays, 0pt if OUT (status unclear)
- BOS -850 ML implies 89.5% win prob vs model 68.4% — market is more confident than model despite quality gap
Risk Factors
- Embiid's actual game status unknown despite resim flag — could play 5 min or 35 min
- Market has already moved to -14.5 (vs opening likely -11 to -12) — early action may have moved line away from model
- High probability favorite (89.5% market-implied) historically shows compression risk per calibration data
GREEN ZONEMODEL MARKET CONFLICTINJURY IMPACTQUALITY MISMATCHRESIM FRESH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 68.4%
-8.1 pts
Spread
-14.5
-8.1 pts
Total
217.5
-1.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →