PHX vs CHI prediction for April 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHI 108.7 - PHX 116.3. PHX is favored with a 70.8% win probability. The spread is 10.0 and the total is 238.5.
CHI
108.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 238.5
PHX
116.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHIPHX
+10.0
Spread (CHI)
238.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 72.1% (1,007 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHX
106116126
CHI
99109119
Model Projection
MLSTRONG+385
CHI ML
+8.6%
Edge
29.2%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
67
Quality
Model gives CHI 29% win prob
Starting Lineups
PHX2 OUT
Devin Booker25.7PPG3.9RPG6.0APG
Dillon Brooks20.5PPG3.6RPG1.7APG
Grayson Allen17.1PPG3.0RPG4.0APG
Collin Gillespie13.0PPG4.1RPG4.8APG
Royce O'Neale9.9PPG4.8RPG2.7APG
CHI8 OUT
Matas Buzelis16.3PPG5.8RPG2.0APG
Tre Jones13.4PPG3.1RPG5.4APG
Isaac Okoro9.2PPG2.7RPG1.5APG
Patrick Williams6.6PPG2.9RPG1.3APG
Guerschon Yabusele5.5PPG3.3RPG0.9APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Model has PHX as 71% favorites to win despite being -10 underdogs (spread/ML mismatch suggests weak confidence). Minor +1.6pt line value on CHI insufficient to overcome spread RED zone and CHI's poor form (1-4 L5).
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHX 70.8%
+2.4 pts
Spread
+10.0
+2.4 pts
Total
238.5
-13.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →