FINAL: LAL 101 — PHX 73. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAL 101.4 - PHX 108.6 (PHX at 70.4% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 216.5.
LAL
101.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 216.5
PHX
108.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
LALPHX
+1.5
Spread (LAL)
216.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PHX L5LAL L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 77.7% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHX
99109119
LAL
91101111
Projected
LAL 101.4 — PHX 108.6
Actual
LAL 101 — PHX 73
Pick Results
LAL MLmlWIN+1.77u
Model Projection
MLELITE-132
PHX ML
+13.5%
Edge
70.4%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
90
Quality
Model gives PHX 70% win prob
Against the Spread
PHX ATS
-5.7 pts edge | 68% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
None 216.5
-6.5 pts edge | 62% under
PASS
Starting Lineups
PHX4 OUT
Dillon Brooks20.3PPG3.7RPG1.8APG
Grayson Allen16.7PPG3.0RPG3.9APG
Collin Gillespie12.7PPG4.1RPG4.7APG
Royce O'Neale9.8PPG4.7RPG2.7APG
Mark Williams11.7PPG8.0RPG1.0APG
LAL4 OUT
LeBron James20.9PPG6.1RPG7.1APG
Marcus Smart9.5PPG2.8RPG2.8APG
Rui Hachimura11.3PPG3.2RPG0.8APG
Deandre Ayton12.4PPG8.0RPG0.8APG
Jake LaRavia8.4PPG4.0RPG1.8APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
CRITICAL DATA INTEGRITY FAILURE: Sim lists 'Luka Doncic' as LAL returning player. Luka plays for DALLAS, not LAL. Fundamental lineup corruption makes game unanalyzable.
DATA INTEGRITYLINEUP CORRUPTION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHX 70.4%
-5.7 pts
Spread
+1.5
-5.7 pts
Total
216.5
-6.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →