FINAL: ORL 115 — PHX 111. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected ORL 109.5 - PHX 104.0 (ORL at 65.8% win probability). The spread is -2.0 and the total is 224.5.
ORL
109.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 224.5
PHX
104.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
ORLPHX
-2.0
Spread (ORL)
224.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PHX L5ORL L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.1% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHX
94104114
ORL
100110119
Projected
ORL 109.5 — PHX 104.0
Actual
ORL 115 — PHX 111
Pick Results
ORL -3.0spreadWIN+0.91u
Model Projection
MLELITE-124
ORL ML
+10.5%
Edge
65.8%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Model gives ORL 66% win prob
Against the Spread
ORL ATS
+8.5 pts edge | 61% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
UNDER 224.5
-21.4 pts edge | 69% under
MARGINAL
Starting Lineups
PHX5 OUT
Devin Booker25.7PPG3.9RPG6.0APG
Collin Gillespie13.1PPG4.1RPG4.8APG
Royce O'Neale10.0PPG4.8RPG2.8APG
Jalen Green18.3PPG3.8RPG2.9APG
Jordan Goodwin8.7PPG4.9RPG2.2APG
ORL3 OUT
Paolo Banchero22.6PPG8.3RPG5.1APG
Desmond Bane20.3PPG4.1RPG4.2APG
Wendell Carter Jr.11.7PPG7.5RPG2.1APG
Jalen Suggs13.7PPG3.8RPG5.2APG
Tristan da Silva10.0PPG3.7RPG1.5APG
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ORL 65.8%
+8.5 pts
Spread
-2.0
+8.5 pts
Total
224.5
-21.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →