FINAL: LAC 104 — POR 114. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAC 123.3 - POR 105.2 (LAC at 89.6% win probability). The spread is -4.5 and the total is 225.5.
LAC
123.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 225.5
POR
105.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
LACPOR
-4.5
Spread (LAC)
225.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
POR W5LAC L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 87.2% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
POR
95105115
LAC
113123133
Projected
LAC 123.3 — POR 105.2
Actual
LAC 104 — POR 114
Pick Results
LAC -5.0spreadLOSS-1.00u
Model Projection
ATSELITE-110
LAC -4.5
+30.9%
Edge
83.3%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Possession model projects +18.1 margin vs line -4.5
Against the Spread
LAC ATS
+30.9 pts edge | 83% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
None 225.5
+2.6 pts edge | 45% under
PASS
Starting Lineups
POR4 OUT
Toumani Camara13.1PPG5.2RPG2.5APG
Deni Avdija23.8PPG6.9RPG6.7APG
Jrue Holiday15.8PPG4.4RPG6.1APG
Donovan Clingan12.2PPG11.7RPG2.1APG
Scoot Henderson14.0PPG2.8RPG4.0APG
LAC3 OUT
Kawhi Leonard28.2PPG6.3RPG3.6APG
Bennedict Mathurin18.8PPG5.6RPG2.3APG
Darius Garland19.1PPG2.4RPG6.9APG
Kris Dunn7.5PPG3.3RPG3.6APG
John Collins13.5PPG5.2RPG1.0APG
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAC 89.6%
+30.9 pts
Spread
-4.5
+30.9 pts
Total
225.5
+2.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →