FINAL: CHA 134 — SAC 90. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHA 110.7 - SAC 103.0 (CHA at 71.3% win probability). The spread is -17.5 and the total is 231.5.
CHA
110.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 231.5
SAC
103.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHASAC
-17.5
Spread (CHA)
231.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SACCHA W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 77.7% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
SAC
93103113
CHA
101111121
Projected
CHA 110.7 — SAC 103.0
Actual
CHA 134 — SAC 90
Pick Results
SAC +17.5spreadLOSS-0.50u
Model Projection
ATSELITE-110
SAC +17.5
+28.2%
Edge
75.8%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Possession model projects +7.7 margin vs line -17.5
Against the Spread
SAC ATS
-28.2 pts edge | 76% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
UNDER 231.5
-30.4 pts edge | 78% under
MARGINAL
Starting Lineups
SAC11 OUT
DeMar DeRozan18.4PPG2.9RPG4.1APG
Maxime Raynaud11.9PPG7.3RPG1.3APG
Malik Monk12.8PPG1.9RPG2.8APG
Dylan Cardwell5.3PPG7.6RPG1.3APG
Devin Carter7.1PPG2.7RPG2.1APG
CHA3 OUT
Miles Bridges17.3PPG5.8RPG3.3APG
Brandon Miller20.4PPG5.0RPG3.5APG
LaMelo Ball19.7PPG4.8RPG7.1APG
Coby White17.6PPG3.5RPG4.5APG
Moussa Diabate8.0PPG8.7RPG1.9APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1GREEN ZONE84.2% WR (n=30)
The market's CHA -17.5 is almost certainly MORE accurate than the model's -11.2 given SAC's catastrophic injury situation (Sabonis, LaVine, Hunter all on surgery, Murray questionable) — this is a HIGH_EDGE_WARNING where the model appears stale on SAC's true roster; CHA ML at -2000 is unplayable and SAC +17.5 spread sits in a RED zone context despite nominal model edge.
Key Factors
- CHA net rating +3.94 vs SAC net rating -9.81 = 13.75pt quality gap (largest mismatch on today's slate)
- SAC missing Sabonis (surgery), LaVine (surgery), De'Andre Hunter (surgery), Keegan Murray (sprain) — projected starters average ~9 pts each
- CHA is 37-34 with L5: 4-1 and L10: 7-3 — playing their best basketball of the season
- Market moved from -17.0 to -17.5 toward CHA — sharp money agrees CHA dominates, not SAC covers
- Model predicted total 219.9 vs market 231.5 = -11.6pt UNDER lean, but totals grade F and 25% WR in 30-day sample
Risk Factors
- Model shows CHA winning by only 11.2 but SAC's true depleted roster likely warrants 15-18pt deficit — model may be using an outdated or pre-injury SAC lineup
- SAC +17.5 nominally has model support (model says CHA wins by 11) but SAC's lineup on the floor is far weaker than any rating captures
- CHA ML at -2000 juice = 95.2% implied probability — mathematically unbeatable value
HIGH EDGE WARNINGMODEL MARKET CONFLICTQUALITY MISMATCHINJURY IMPACTRED ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHA 71.3%
-28.2 pts
Spread
-17.5
-28.2 pts
Total
231.5
-30.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →