FINAL: DET 127 — TOR 116. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DET 101.3 - TOR 104.1 (TOR at 58.5% win probability). The spread is -3.5 and the total is 219.5.
DET
101.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 219.5
TOR
104.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETTOR
-3.5
Spread (DET)
219.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TOR L4DET W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
94104114
DET
91101111
Projected
DET 101.3 — TOR 104.1
Actual
DET 127 — TOR 116
Pick Results
TOR +2.5spreadLOSS-1.00u
Model Projection
ATSELITE-110
TOR +3.5
+20.3%
Edge
67.9%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Possession model projects -2.9 margin vs line -3.5
Against the Spread
TOR ATS
-20.3 pts edge | 68% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
UNDER 219.5
-27.4 pts edge | 75% under
MARGINAL
Starting Lineups
TOR6 OUT
Scottie Barnes18.6PPG7.7RPG5.7APG
Jakob Poeltl10.6PPG7.6RPG2.1APG
Jamal Shead6.5PPG1.9RPG5.3APG
Sandro Mamukelashvili11.1PPG4.9RPG1.8APG
Ja'Kobe Walter7.3PPG2.4RPG1.1APG
DET7 OUT
Ausar Thompson10.0PPG5.8RPG2.9APG
Kevin Huerter10.0PPG3.5RPG2.5APG
Ronald Holland II8.2PPG4.1RPG1.3APG
Daniss Jenkins8.8PPG2.1RPG3.6APG
Javonte Green7.0PPG2.8RPG0.7APG
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TOR 58.5%
-20.3 pts
Spread
-3.5
-20.3 pts
Total
219.5
-27.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →