FINAL: DEN 135 — UTA 129. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected DEN 132.5 - UTA 106.4 (DEN at 96.8% win probability). The spread is -19.5 and the total is 246.5.
DEN
132.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 246.5
UTA
106.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
DENUTA
-19.5
Spread (DEN)
246.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
UTA L5DEN W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 99.0% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
UTA
96106116
DEN
123132142
Projected
DEN 132.5 — UTA 106.4
Actual
DEN 135 — UTA 129
Pick Results
DEN -18.5spreadLOSS-1.00u
Model Projection
ATSELITE-110
DEN -19.5
+15.4%
Edge
67.8%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Possession model projects +26.1 margin vs line -19.5
Starting Lineups
UTA6 OUT
Bez Mbeng5.4PPG4.0RPG4.0APG
Kennedy Chandler15.3PPG3.7RPG7.0APG
Ace Bailey13.4PPG4.1RPG1.8APG
Svi Mykhailiuk9.1PPG2.5RPG1.9APG
Kyle Filipowski10.5PPG6.9RPG2.4APG
DENHealthy
Jamal Murray25.4PPG4.4RPG7.1APG
Nikola Jokic27.8PPG12.8RPG10.8APG
Christian Braun11.7PPG4.8RPG2.9APG
Cameron Johnson11.9PPG3.7RPG2.4APG
Peyton Watson15.0PPG4.9RPG2.0APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE48.1% WR (n=33)
Model DEN -15.3 vs market -18.5 creates a 3.2pt apparent edge toward UTA covering, but UTA's injury carnage (Markkanen pinched nerve, George strain, Nurkic/JJJ/Kessler on surgery) means their sim lineup of raw youth (Mbeng, Chandler, Bailey, Mykhailiuk, Williams) cannot reliably cover +18.5 even against a strong DEN team.
Key Factors
- UTA is missing ALL their quality players: Markkanen (Pinched Nerve), George (Strain), Nurkic/JJJ/Kessler (Surgery) — estimated 15+ pt swing from a full-strength Jazz team
- DEN net rating +4.3, at altitude home (DEN altitude advantage ~+4.5pts above standard HCA) — this game plays like DEN -8 on neutral court
- Model DEN -15.3 vs market -18.5 — 3.2pt model gap toward UTA, but the model may be underestimating DEN's altitude edge AND UTA's true depletion
- UTA away off_rtg 113.5 vs DEN home def_rtg 114.6 — UTA can barely score on the road; DEN home off_rtg 119.0 obliterates UTA away def_rtg 123.1
- UTA is 1-4 L5, 2-8 L10 — worst road team in the Western Conference
Risk Factors
- Spread Grade F nationally — taking away underdog spreads has been catastrophically bad this season
- DEN's Jokic (28ppg sim) + Murray (25ppg) at altitude is essentially unbeatable for this shell of a Utah team — market may be correct at -18.5
- No line movement data for this game — no sharp confirmation available
HIGH EDGE WARNINGQUALITY MISMATCHINJURY IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DEN 96.8%
+15.4 pts
Spread
-19.5
+15.4 pts
Total
246.5
-16.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →