FINAL: HOU 140 — UTA 106. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected HOU 113.7 - UTA 106.9 (HOU at 69.6% win probability). The spread is -17.5 and the total is 233.5.
HOU
113.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 233.5
UTA
106.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUUTA
-17.5
Spread (HOU)
233.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
UTA L5HOU
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 77.7% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
UTA
97107117
HOU
104114124
Projected
HOU 113.7 — UTA 106.9
Actual
HOU 140 — UTA 106
Pick Results
UTA +17.5spreadLOSS-1.00u
Model Projection
MLELITE+1040
UTA ML
+21.7%
Edge
30.4%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Model gives UTA 30% win prob
Against the Spread
UTA ATS
-10.7 pts edge | 78% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
UNDER 233.5
-12.9 pts edge | 73% under
MARGINAL
Starting Lineups
UTA7 OUT
Kennedy Chandler14.4PPG3.4RPG6.7APG
Bez Mbeng5.0PPG3.4RPG3.4APG
Ace Bailey13.5PPG4.1RPG1.8APG
Cody Williams8.2PPG2.8RPG1.8APG
Brice Sensabaugh14.5PPG3.1RPG1.8APG
HOU2 OUT
Amen Thompson17.9PPG7.8RPG5.3APG
Kevin Durant25.8PPG5.4RPG4.7APG
Jabari Smith Jr.15.5PPG6.9RPG1.9APG
Alperen Sengun20.6PPG8.9RPG6.2APG
Reed Sheppard13.7PPG2.9RPG3.4APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1GREEN ZONE53.3% WR (n=156)
HOU (net +4.66) vs UTA (net -7.97, 21-56, 0-5 L5). 12.64pt quality gap favors HOU. Model predicts HOU -10.5, market -17.5. 10.71pt spread disagreement is large. HOU ML is GREEN zone (53.3% WR) with 10.71pt edge on moneyline. Spread is YELLOW (48.5% WR). Prefer ML over spread to capture direction while de-risking margin.
Key Factors
- Net rating gap: HOU +4.66 vs UTA -7.97 = 12.64pt gap (solid vs poor)
- UTA cold streak: L5 0-5, L10 1-9; HOU solid: L5 4-1, L10 6-4
- Spread edge on ML: Model -10.5, Market -17.5 = 10.71pt edge (large)
Risk Factors
- Spread zone for home favorite is YELLOW (48.5% WR), not ideal; prefer ML
- UTA getting Kessler back (starter, +2.5 impact) could tighten game defensively
- Market overpricing margin is common; cover at -17.5 is realistic only 15-20%
GREEN ZONEQUALITY MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 69.6%
-10.7 pts
Spread
-17.5
-10.7 pts
Total
233.5
-12.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →