FINAL: PHX 134 — UTA 109. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PHX 114.8 - UTA 99.6 (PHX at 85.3% win probability). The spread is -16.5 and the total is 233.5.
PHX
114.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 233.5
UTA
99.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHXUTA
-16.5
Spread (PHX)
233.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
UTA L5PHX L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 86.9% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
UTA
90100110
PHX
105115125
Projected
PHX 114.8 — UTA 99.6
Actual
PHX 134 — UTA 109
Pick Results
UTA +16.5spreadLOSS-1.00u
Model Projection
MLELITE+980
UTA ML
+5.4%
Edge
14.7%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
58
Quality
Model gives UTA 15% win prob
Against the Spread
UTA ATS
-4.7 pts edge | 52% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
UNDER 233.5
-32.5 pts edge | 80% under
MARGINAL
Starting Lineups
UTA6 OUT
Bez Mbeng4.8PPG3.8RPG3.6APG
Kennedy Chandler15.5PPG3.0RPG7.0APG
Ace Bailey13.5PPG4.2RPG1.8APG
Svi Mykhailiuk9.1PPG2.5RPG1.9APG
Kyle Filipowski10.7PPG7.0RPG2.5APG
PHX4 OUT
Devin Booker25.5PPG3.9RPG5.9APG
Grayson Allen17.3PPG3.0RPG4.1APG
Royce O'Neale10.0PPG4.8RPG2.8APG
Collin Gillespie13.3PPG4.1RPG4.7APG
Jalen Green17.7PPG3.6RPG2.9APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE79.4% WR (n=5)
The model predicts PHX winning by 11.1 while the market has PHX -16.5 — a 5.4pt gap — but with no ML odds available, both teams in terrible recent form (1-4 L5), and the spread market in Grade F territory, there is no clean actionable bet; PHX has a 4-day rest advantage but the market has already priced in their home/rest edge.
Key Factors
- PHX net_rtg +1.21 vs UTA net_rtg -7.67 = 8.87pt quality gap — PHX genuine favorite
- PHX rest advantage: 4 days rest vs UTA's 1 day rest — PHX fresher (~+2.0pt edge historically)
- UTA without JJJ (surgery), Kessler (surgery), Markkanen (pinched nerve) — severely depleted away team
- Model: PHX -11.1 vs market: PHX -16.5 = 5.4pt gap — model says UTA covers but spread Grade F
- PHX 1-4 L5, 4-6 L10 — cold stretch; even with home/rest edge, PHX hasn't been sharp recently
Risk Factors
- No ML odds available — can't exploit our A+ market; only spread available (Grade F)
- PHX 1-4 L5, 4-6 L10 — massive home favorite with terrible recent form is a classic trap spot
- 5.4pt model-market gap in the UTA direction is intriguing but spread Grade F and TRAP_ZONE alert means minimum 10% edge required — this doesn't qualify cleanly
MODEL MARKET CONFLICTHIGH EDGE WARNINGREST EDGECOLD STREAK
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHX 85.3%
-4.7 pts
Spread
-16.5
-4.7 pts
Total
233.5
-32.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →