FINAL: SAC 116 — UTA 111. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SAC 111.3 - UTA 107.6 (SAC at 59.4% win probability). The spread is -3.0 and the total is 232.5.
SAC
111.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 232.5
UTA
107.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
SACUTA
-3.0
Spread (SAC)
232.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
UTA L5SAC
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.2% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
UTA
98108118
SAC
101111121
Projected
SAC 111.3 — UTA 107.6
Actual
SAC 116 — UTA 111
Pick Results
SAC MLmlWIN+1.19u
Starting Lineups
UTA8 OUT
Bez Mbeng4.0PPG4.0RPG4.0APG
Andersson Garcia6.0PPG6.0RPG1.0APG
Isaiah Collier11.5PPG2.5RPG7.3APG
Svi Mykhailiuk9.1PPG2.5RPG1.9APG
Brice Sensabaugh13.4PPG3.0RPG1.7APG
SAC8 OUT
DeMar DeRozan18.5PPG3.0RPG3.9APG
Russell Westbrook15.4PPG5.5RPG6.6APG
Maxime Raynaud11.1PPG7.2RPG1.2APG
Daeqwon Plowden8.3PPG3.3RPG1.1APG
Nique Clifford7.6PPG3.5RPG2.1APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANGREEN ZONE77.6% WR (n=51)
The model's massive 20.98pt spread edge (SAC -7.5 model vs -2.0 market) reflects the depth of SAC's lineup advantage on this specific night — with UTA fielding arguably the NBA's worst active roster and SAC confirmed active with DeRozan (27pts yesterday) and Westbrook (triple-double yesterday) — but SAC's 17-51 record and -9.8 net rating demand heavy scrutiny of this edge.
Key Factors
- UTA starters: Bez Mbeng (4p), Andersson Garcia (6p), Isaiah Collier (12p), Svi Mykhailiuk (9p), Brice Sensabaugh (13p) — a 44-projected-point lineup with zero NBA starter-level talent
- UTA missing: Markkanen (Pinched Nerve), JJJ (Surgery), Kessler (Surgery), Keyonte George (Strain), Ace Bailey (Concussion) — essentially entire rotation OUT
- SAC confirmed active: DeRozan 27pts and Westbrook triple-double YESTERDAY vs LAC per ESPN — rested 1 day but fresh-legged starters
- SAC home favorite ML GREEN zone: 77.6% WR (home fav category) — SAC is home favorite here
- Model win prob: 77.75% for SAC (home fav) vs market implied ~52.4% at -2.0 spread = 25.35pt prob gap
Risk Factors
- SAC's own record is 17-51 (-9.8 net rating) — this is a matchup of two legitimate bottom-5 teams; SAC's home splits show 111.9 off_rtg vs 118.7 def_rtg = still a net-negative team at home
- High edge warning (20.98%): 15-25% edge bucket only 16.7% WR in recent 30d — extreme edges have been losing, not winning
- UTA outscores their net rating on offense (117.6 off_rtg) despite bad record; SAC home def_rtg: 118.7 = poor defense that UTA can exploit
HIGH EDGE WARNINGMODEL MARKET CONFLICTINJURY IMPACTLINE VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SAC 59.4%
-1.2 pts
Spread
-3.0
-1.2 pts
Total
232.5
-25.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →