FINAL: POR 123 — WAS 88. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected POR 116.1 - WAS 106.6 (POR at 74.8% win probability). The spread is -16.5 and the total is 237.5.
POR
116.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 237.5
WAS
106.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
PORWAS
-16.5
Spread (POR)
237.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
WAS L5POR W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 77.7% (1,191 games)
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
WAS
97107117
POR
106116126
Projected
POR 116.1 — WAS 106.6
Actual
POR 123 — WAS 88
Pick Results
WAS +16.0spreadLOSS-1.00u
Model Projection
ATSELITE-110
WAS +16.5
+21.4%
Edge
69.0%
Win/Cover Prob
1.0u
Units
100
Quality
Possession model projects +9.5 margin vs line -16.5
Against the Spread
WAS ATS
-21.4 pts edge | 69% cover
ELITE
Over/Under
UNDER 237.5
-27.0 pts edge | 75% under
MARGINAL
Starting Lineups
WAS9 OUT
Julian Reese12.0PPG10.7RPG1.5APG
Bub Carrington10.3PPG3.5RPG4.5APG
Will Riley9.3PPG2.7RPG1.8APG
Justin Champagnie8.2PPG5.5RPG1.2APG
Jamir Watkins6.3PPG3.6RPG1.2APG
POR5 OUT
Toumani Camara12.9PPG5.2RPG2.5APG
Deni Avdija23.9PPG6.9RPG6.7APG
Jrue Holiday15.9PPG4.5RPG6.2APG
Donovan Clingan12.3PPG11.8RPG2.1APG
Scoot Henderson13.7PPG2.8RPG3.8APG
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALGREEN ZONE85.1% WR (n=34)
POR -16.5 is an enormous spread in a game between a mediocre Blazers team (37-38, -1.30 net rating) and a depleted Wizards squad — the model actually predicts POR wins by only 9.5pts (not 16.5), creating a massive 21.38pt model-market conflict, but WAS +16.5 covers are in Grade F spread territory and the underlying data suggests POR is not as dominant as the market implies.
Key Factors
- POR net rating: -1.30 vs WAS net rating: -11.18 = 9.87pt quality gap — but market lines POR -16.5 (much larger)
- Model predicts POR wins by only 9.5pts (116.1 vs 106.6), market has POR -16.5 = 7pt discrepancy favoring WAS cover
- WAS missing: Trae Young (Bruise), Alex Sarr (Undisclosed), D'Angelo Russell (Not Specified) — severely depleted; POR has Avdija (24p proj), Holiday (16p proj), Clingan, Henderson active
- Spread_edge: -21.38 is our 2nd largest model-market conflict; model strongly disagrees with POR -16.5, suggesting WAS covers
- WAS L10: 1-9 (10%), L5: 1-4 — historically bad team; POR L10: 6-4 (60%), L5: 3-2
Risk Factors
- Spread is Grade F — the WAS +16.5 cover angle is naturally compelling from model data but we don't bet Grade F spreads
- POR home off-rtg (118.1) vs WAS away def-rtg (124.5) — Blazers should score but WAS defense is genuinely terrible
- WAS away net rating: -12.6 (off 111.9, def 124.5) — worst road defense in sample; POR could run away
HIGH EDGE WARNINGMODEL MARKET CONFLICTDATA INTEGRITYRESIM FRESH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
POR 74.8%
-21.4 pts
Spread
-16.5
-21.4 pts
Total
237.5
-27.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NBA Basketball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →