BUF vs MTL prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MTL 2.74 - BUF 3.22. BUF is favored with a 51.9% win probability. The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
MTL
2.74
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
BUF
3.22
Projected Score
Win Probability
MTLBUF
-1.5
Spread (MTL)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.9% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
BUF
2.13.24.3
MTL
1.72.73.8
Projected
MTL 2.74 — BUF 3.22
Actual
MTL 2 — BUF 3
Game Odds
MTL ML
-144
BUF ML
+120
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
MTL Edge
-10.9%
BUF Edge
+6.5%
Projected Total
5.96
-0.54 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
24-242.49 GAA90.9% SV
Jakub Dobes
7-42.72 GAA90.3% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 41.8% – 43.4% home win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BUF 51.9%
-10.9 pts
Spread
-1.5
-10.9 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →