BUF vs MTL prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MTL 2.74 - BUF 3.22. BUF is favored with a 51.9% win probability. The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
MTL
2.74
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
BUF
3.22
Projected Score
Win Probability
MTLBUF
-1.5
Spread (MTL)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
BUF
2.13.24.3
MTL
1.72.73.8
Projected
MTL 2.74 — BUF 3.22
Actual
MTL 2 — BUF 3
Game Odds
MTL ML
-144
BUF ML
+120
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
MTL Edge
-10.9%
BUF Edge
+6.5%
Projected Total
5.96
-0.54 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
24-242.49 GAA90.9% SV
Jakub Dobes
7-42.72 GAA90.3% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 41.8% – 43.4% home win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BUF 51.9%
-10.9 pts
Spread
-1.5
-10.9 pts
Total
6.5
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →