NHL Hockey

COL vs MIN Prediction

May 11, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

COL vs MIN prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 2.52 - COL 4.14. COL is favored with a 62.8% win probability. The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.5.

MIN
2.52
Projected Score
VS O/U 6.5
COL
4.14
Projected Score
Win Probability
37.2%
62.8%
MINCOL
+1.5
Spread (MIN)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,083 games)

Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile

COL
3.14.15.2
MIN
1.42.53.6
FINALMIN 2 — COL 5
Projected
MIN 2.52 — COL 4.14
Actual
MIN 2 — COL 5

Game Odds

MIN ML
+124
COL ML
-148
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.5
Model Quality62/100 (STRONG)

Edge Detail

MIN Edge
-7.4%
COL Edge
+3.1%
Projected Total
6.66
+0.16 vs line

Goalie Matchup

Scott Wedgewood
1-22.05 GAA92.1% SV
VS
Filip Gustavsson
31-192.71 GAA90.3% SV

Special Teams

Power Play
COL
17.6%
MIN
24.4%
Penalty Kill
COL
84.1%
MIN
77.0%
90% Confidence: 25.7% – 27.2% home win probability

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
COL 62.8%
-7.4 pts
Spread
+1.5
-7.4 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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