NHL Hockey

COL vs MIN Prediction

May 11, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

COL vs MIN prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 2.52 - COL 4.14. COL is favored with a 62.8% win probability. The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.5.

MIN
2.52
Projected Score
VS O/U 6.5
COL
4.14
Projected Score
Win Probability
37.2%
62.8%
MINCOL
+1.5
Spread (MIN)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.3% (1,083 games)

Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile

COL
3.14.15.2
MIN
1.42.53.6
FINALMIN 2 — COL 5
Projected
MIN 2.52 — COL 4.14
Actual
MIN 2 — COL 5

Game Odds

MIN ML
+124
COL ML
-148
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.5
Model Quality62/100 (STRONG)

Edge Detail

MIN Edge
-7.4%
COL Edge
+3.1%
Projected Total
6.66
+0.16 vs line

Goalie Matchup

Scott Wedgewood
1-22.05 GAA92.1% SV
VS
Filip Gustavsson
31-192.71 GAA90.3% SV

Special Teams

Power Play
COL
17.6%
MIN
24.4%
Penalty Kill
COL
84.1%
MIN
77.0%
90% Confidence: 25.7% – 27.2% home win probability

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
COL 62.8%
-7.4 pts
Spread
+1.5
-7.4 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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