COL vs MIN prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 2.52 - COL 4.14. COL is favored with a 62.8% win probability. The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.5.
MIN
2.52
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
COL
4.14
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINCOL
+1.5
Spread (MIN)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,083 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
3.14.15.2
MIN
1.42.53.6
Projected
MIN 2.52 — COL 4.14
Actual
MIN 2 — COL 5
Game Odds
MIN ML
+124
COL ML
-148
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
MIN Edge
-7.4%
COL Edge
+3.1%
Projected Total
6.66
+0.16 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Scott Wedgewood
1-22.05 GAA92.1% SV
Filip Gustavsson
31-192.71 GAA90.3% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 25.7% – 27.2% home win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 62.8%
-7.4 pts
Spread
+1.5
-7.4 pts
Total
6.5
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →