FINAL: VGK 2 — COL 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected VGK 2.39 - COL 3.57 (COL at 57.4% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.5.
VGK
2.39
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
COL
3.57
Projected Score
Win Probability
VGKCOL
+1.5
Spread (VGK)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
COL L5VGK
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (1,092 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
2.53.64.7
VGK
1.32.43.5
Projected
VGK 2.39 — COL 3.57
Actual
VGK 2 — COL 1
Pick Results
COL MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Game Odds
VGK ML
-104
COL ML
-115
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
VGK Edge
-8.4%
COL Edge
+3.9%
Projected Total
5.96
-0.54 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Scott Wedgewood
1-22.05 GAA92.1% SV
Akira Schmid
2-02.83 GAA88.2% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 31.9% – 33.4% home win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 57.4%
-8.4 pts
Spread
+1.5
-8.4 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →