AC Milan vs Genoa prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Genoa 1.17 - AC Milan 1.7. AC Milan is favored with a 53.7% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.9..
Genoa
1.17
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
AC Milan
1.7
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
GenoaDrawAC Milan
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 97.9% (1,062 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
AC Milan
0.91.72.5
Genoa
0.41.21.9
Projected
Genoa 1.17 — AC Milan 1.7
Actual
Genoa 1 — AC Milan 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Genoa1.16
AC Milan1.68
15.9Shots17.8
5.3On Target6.6
5.6Corners5.8
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.6%
Over 1.5
78.6%
Over 2.5
53.7%
Over 3.5
53.0%
Under 2.5
46.3%
BTTS
50.7%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
13.9%
0-1
11.8%
0-0
10.6%
1-0
9.5%
1-2
8.4%
Match Context
SERMedium
Genoa
5.29
Draw
3.79
AC Milan
1.71
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
AC Milan 53.7%
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Total
2.9
+10.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →