Soccer Predictions

Soccer Engine Overview

Soccer simulation uses play-by-play modeling with expected goals from FBref data. The engine handles the unique challenge of three-way moneyline markets (where a draw counts as a loss for home/away bets), Both Teams to Score (BTTS) predictions, and match totals. Extra time and penalty shootout scenarios are modeled for cup competitions.

Isotonic regression calibration ensures that stated probabilities match observed frequencies across the full range of predictions. Formation analysis and squad rotation patterns add tactical depth to the projections.